Poland: Russian-made missile fell on our country, killing 2

[Igel]

87. There are several claims.

1. Russian-made.

2. Fired by Russia.

3. Aimed (or were badly designed) so that they performed unimpeded.

Countered by ...

1. Ukraine uses Russian-made missiles, some of which are anti-aircraft and could be used to knock down missiles.

2. They were knocked off course, damaged by Ukr weapons designed to deflect and known down cruise missiles, so is Russia really responsible for where they landed?

I discount with a fair amount of confidence that they weren't fired by Ukr in order to frame Russia.

Assume that they were Russian-made. Were they intended to kill Russian-fired missiles? Did Ukr-fired missiles go off course? Did they cause Russian-fired missiles that would have struck Lviv or some other Ukr target to veer off course and impact in Poland?

So the "confirmation" so far is inconclusive. I personally assume that they were Russian-fired but just shoddily designed or mis-programmed. There's a chance that they were intended as a message--maybe by somebody lower down than Shoigu, maybe by somebody lower than Surovikin (that's unlikely, but you never know). Russian denial is meaningless--what they say has little relevance to the truth, except when the truth actually is in their favor (then you can't tell if it's accidentally true or not, so it's a distinction without much of a difference).

Radar and other tracking, if it exists, might be able to backtrack those particular bits of airborne armament. We can wait before jumping to a conclusion that we'll wind up pretending was never made, however forcefully it was never, in hindsight, made.