U.S. inflation remains above Fed's target rate

[progree]

4. YW 😊 Busy day economy wise: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Employment Cost Index,

Last edited Tue May 2, 2023, 11:48 AM - Edit history (4)

Consumer Sentiment, and PCE inflation.

I'll be particularly interested in looking at the Employment Cost Index as it is said to be a much better indicator of wages and compensation than the usual go-to metric of average hourly earnings that comes out on first Fridays (usually). The ECI is said to looks at trends in the same occupations, whereas average hourly earnings gets distorted by job losses or gains occurring in certain sectors more than others; last hired first fired stuff (in the pandemic that caused the averages to soar). Whatever. I'm saying this off the top of my head, there are better explanations out there.

The downside of the ECI is that it's quarterly - meaning a long wait for updates, and then the updates have some old data in them.

The AP story I linked to has just this on today's ECI report:

A separate government report Friday showed that companies continued to provide solid pay raises to their employees last quarter. The report, called the employment cost index, which measures wages, salaries and benefits, rose 1.2% in the first three months of the year. That was up from 1.1% in the final quarter of last year.

That looks good because the CPI rose 0.94% in the last 3 months, and the PCE 0.98%. So that means an actual real (inflation-adjusted) increase, for a change.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

Their table shows the 12 month inflation-adjusted number is -0.2%. At a glance I don't see their inflation-adjusted 3 month number anywhere.

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From: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-wages-grew-fastest-pace-decades-2021-prices-grew-even-more

The BLS releases ECI statistics, showing compensation, wage, and benefit growth over the prior three months, four times a year. The ECI shows changes in wages and benefits in a manner that fixes the composition of the workforce. This is important, particularly when there are large changes in employment, because these data are not subject to the same distortions as the monthly average hourly earnings series, which can artificially be increased when low-wage workers lose their jobs and drop out of the sample (as happened in 2020) or artificially be decreased when these same workers are hired back (as happened in 2021) [1].

By fixing workforce composition, the ECI provides a more accurate picture of what is actually happening to wages.

[1] The Pandemic’s Effect on Measured Wage Growth, The WHite House, 4/19/21
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/

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This particular one is inflation-adjusted wage and salaries for private sector workers.

Note the build-up to the Q2.2020 peak. Then it plateaued through Q1.2021, President Biden's first quarter, then went down.
Finally it has been turning up since a local bottom in Q3.2022 for a couple of quarters.
The last reading is 3.7% below the peak, and 3.4% below the Q1.2021 value.

Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing

I tediously moused over point by point gathering the data from their graph (the numbers for each point pop up, so I didn't have to "read" the graph like back in middle school). Edit: There's a "Download data" link at the lower left of the second graph at the Source that I had been aware of and had clicked and thought it was just downloading a PDF file of the page. But it turned out it was offering to download the Excel data for the graph which is of course what I wanted. So I did that and verified that the data was the same, to within 0.0 accuracy, as used for my graph, but I went ahead and replaced my old data with it (since it has a few more digits to the right of the decimal, and heck why not).

The source link just above also compares to inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings and also to inflation-adjusted median usual earnings of full-time workers.

This (the ECI) is reportedly the Fed's favorite wage and salary indicator as explained earlier in the post.