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progree

(13,090 posts)
8. Rate hike odds only slightly down from last night. First Q2 GDP forecast: 1.7% or 0%
Fri Apr 28, 2023, 03:38 PM
Apr 2023

Rate hike - right now it's an 84% probability of a quarter point rise. vs. 16% stay put. (Last night it was 87% to 13%)
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

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The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model projects a 1.7% Q2 GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized rate). Today is their first forecast of Q2 GDP.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Note though that is not in any way a prediction or forecast of theirs, its just the output of a model, as they take pains to explain. Still it is what it is, such as it is .

Along with it is a blue chip economists' consensus forecast and the spread between the lowest 10% and highest 10% of their forecasts. Right now the median is a fraction of a tenth of a percent below 0%.

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