Final results confirm Islamists top Egypt vote

[Igel]

11. The Ikhwan is going to have to choose.

As will the liberals.

Are values or power more important to them?

In one scenario, the liberals will have to agree to stuff that they find repressive. The Ikhwan will have to agree to stuff they find immoral. It's likely that each group will find their compromises mere stepping stones to getting more power and control and making sure tha everybody does things their way. In other words, compromises aren't rooted in respect but in maneuvering for authoritarian control. This won't provide stability, and the #1 thing that a society in extreme transition needs is a route to stability that doesn't involve more authoritarianism. Few claim they want authoritarianism, most simply delude themselves.

In a second scenario, the Ikhwan will work with the Salafiy. They will then have to decide whether to risk alienating liberals--those who confused 5% with 99% in a public act of utter innumeracy--or being more conservative than they'd otherwise be at first. The Salafiyoun might moderate slightly in details that they can view as mere tradition (a feat for the righteous), but are unlikely to give *too* much. There may be a few points of contention between them, but it's likely that the Salafiy can find a way to include enough Ikhwan to be content, and the Ikhwan will find an easier accommodation.

Still, they've been trained to want power and control, and without a change in mindset it's going to be a rough road. Look at Russia--in 1992 everybody was happy and assumed that Russians would immediately be like "us"--whatever that means. Others said that it would take generations--the first generation would try to continue the way they had been, the second generation would start real change in society, and the third would finally reach some sort of stable conclusion. My Russian teacher was in the latter camp, and when he talked about "mentality" his much brighter students chuckled. Yet the first generation went between anarchic El'tsyn (better for the country, if truth be told, than Putin) then controlling Putin; the second generation, those we now think are finally as enlightened as us, are beginning to protest. They won't get it right, but probably get it better--yet the instability they bring bears a lot of risk. Gen-3 will probably get it right, if the current risk doesn't yield a lot of socio-political regression.