Is Gallup’s place atop poll world slipping?

[John2]

31. Their

final registered model, actually showed Obama winning by 3 percentage points. The Rasmussen Poll shouldn't be left out either. When all the Polls changed to likely voter models, they were over doing white voters and older voters. A lot of these came from the South too, but if you look at population, the Northeast and West have higher populations.

The midterm elections are not a good parameter to base your model on either because they tend to be low turnouts. The model should have been the last general election which was 2008. Demographics were also very important, because it has changed since 2008. There was also a lot of new Pollsters, mostly Republican, popping up in this cycle, that were anti Obama. Remember the one Republican Pollster, that claimed North Carolina was a done deal for Romney. They claimed the same about Virginia and Florida. That was never the case. Pew was also pressured by the Republicans to alter their methods, more favorable to Romney.

I personally never thought it was close and also thought Obama had a chance to sweep all the swing states, including North Carolina. It is still a mystery to me though why he only got 2,178,000 votes out of 2,872,000 Democrats on North Carolina's rolls? I would like to know why so many didn't vote, just like 2008. If the Democrats could research that problem, they would have a much easier time winning the state. Some of those counties are not turning out or the registration numbers are way off.