MAYHEM AHEAD: Ex-GOP Chair Says Chances Of Open Convention '50-50'

[Pab Sungenis]

25. Simple.

Half the delegates are going to be picked in winner-take-all elections after April 1st. Before that most races are proportional. (Florida is an outlier.) This was set up to prevent another early winner like McCain.

Right now Gingrich has 23 delegates (including Perry's). Romney has 21 (including Huntsman's). Santorum has 13, Ron Paul has 3.

Ron Paul might just win the Virginia primary if Newt and Santorum voters pick him to protest their guy being off the ballot, and to keep Romney from benefiting too much from their absence. That would give him incentive to not drop out of the race, and he will continue to pick up delegates in the races he's in, even if he has a poor showing.

Santorum will also continue to pick up delegates. If he stays in through Super Tuesday he will pick up a fair number, keeping either Newt or Mitt from getting the majority of the delegates up for grabs that day.

After that, it all depends on what Santorum does. If he stays in the race, it will hand the nomination to Mitt. If he pulls out and backs Gingrich, then it will be a hard slog between two candidates, neither of whom is in a position to come close to a clean sweep of the post-April races. Romney will win California, Newt will win Texas. Who the hell knows what New York might do; their teahadists might hand it to Newt like they handed the Gubernatorial nomination to Paladino. Pennsylvania is also tea-infected so they're a toss-up. Most of the smaller ones and Southern ones will go to Newt.

And who knows, Newt might flame out and Santorum take over the teahadist vote. That would really confuse things.

What has to happen for a brokered convention right now is for Newt to maintain his current lead, Santorum to stay through Super Tuesday then drop out before April 1st and then back Newt, and for Romney to not have a strong surge if Newt flames out after Santorum drops out.

That's why the odds are about 50-50.