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In reply to the discussion: Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected [View all]progree
(11,015 posts)18. I added PCE and Core PCE to my assemblage of graphs in my #4 above
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143223421#post4
so they can be more easily compared to each other. So I have:
Core CPI
Regular aka headline CPI
Core PCE
Regular aka headline PCE.
It's my understanding that the Fed weighs the PCE more heavily that the CPI
And, in both cases weighs the Core measures more heavily than the regular measures as a baseline for predicting FUTURE inflation.
So of the four graphs, the Core PCE is the one to concentrate most on in predicting what the Fed is going to do. Although it's nearly 2 weeks older than today's CPI reports.
And thanks for pointing out that wages have been more than keeping up. There's been a very slight dip in the real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers in the last 2 months, but as you often mention, its well above pre-pandemic levels (and, edited to add, year ago levels).
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
ETA: Real average hourly earnings of all private sector workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013
My bond funds have been slaughtered (down 22% in purchasing power) as well as the purchasing power of my annuity, Sigh, looking at last 3 years. So I'm dismayed that interest rates are likely to be higher for longer than people were thinking a month or two ago (which will keep bond prices from recovering). Fortunately stocks, as represented by the Vanguard 500 Index Fund VFIAX is up 12.9% in purchasing power over the same 3 year period.
so they can be more easily compared to each other. So I have:
Core CPI
Regular aka headline CPI
Core PCE
Regular aka headline PCE.
It's my understanding that the Fed weighs the PCE more heavily that the CPI
And, in both cases weighs the Core measures more heavily than the regular measures as a baseline for predicting FUTURE inflation.
So of the four graphs, the Core PCE is the one to concentrate most on in predicting what the Fed is going to do. Although it's nearly 2 weeks older than today's CPI reports.
And thanks for pointing out that wages have been more than keeping up. There's been a very slight dip in the real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers in the last 2 months, but as you often mention, its well above pre-pandemic levels (and, edited to add, year ago levels).
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
ETA: Real average hourly earnings of all private sector workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013
My bond funds have been slaughtered (down 22% in purchasing power) as well as the purchasing power of my annuity, Sigh, looking at last 3 years. So I'm dismayed that interest rates are likely to be higher for longer than people were thinking a month or two ago (which will keep bond prices from recovering). Fortunately stocks, as represented by the Vanguard 500 Index Fund VFIAX is up 12.9% in purchasing power over the same 3 year period.
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Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected [View all]
BumRushDaShow
Apr 10
OP
Fed is too weak and too late to the inflation fight, as usual, as per the 1970s
bucolic_frolic
Apr 10
#3
Graphs: *CORE* CPI month by month and rolling 3 month average. EDIT: and regular CPI. And PCE core and regular
progree
Apr 10
#4
They have been "predicting" although I did see articles where there are some small drops
BumRushDaShow
Apr 10
#10
It was back in September 2022 and many times I've looked at the news since all these many months
progree
Apr 10
#12
I'm showing graphs in #4 that include food and energy (the regular headline numbers) and the ones without it (core)
progree
Apr 10
#21
And thank you. I hate inflation too -- I was a young adult in the late 70's early 80's great inflation
progree
Apr 11
#25
I believe that's because what we feel is cumulative as opposed to a discrete point. When I buy groceries, my natural
24601
Apr 10
#17
In your example above, a 32% price increase over 3 years would indicate higher than reported inflation in 1/3 years
SpicyBoi
Apr 10
#22