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progree

(11,015 posts)
18. I added PCE and Core PCE to my assemblage of graphs in my #4 above
Wed Apr 10, 2024, 11:17 AM
Apr 10
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143223421#post4

so they can be more easily compared to each other. So I have:

Core CPI
Regular aka headline CPI

Core PCE
Regular aka headline PCE.

It's my understanding that the Fed weighs the PCE more heavily that the CPI
And, in both cases weighs the Core measures more heavily than the regular measures as a baseline for predicting FUTURE inflation.

So of the four graphs, the Core PCE is the one to concentrate most on in predicting what the Fed is going to do. Although it's nearly 2 weeks older than today's CPI reports.

And thanks for pointing out that wages have been more than keeping up. There's been a very slight dip in the real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers in the last 2 months, but as you often mention, its well above pre-pandemic levels (and, edited to add, year ago levels).
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032

ETA: Real average hourly earnings of all private sector workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

My bond funds have been slaughtered (down 22% in purchasing power) as well as the purchasing power of my annuity, Sigh, looking at last 3 years. So I'm dismayed that interest rates are likely to be higher for longer than people were thinking a month or two ago (which will keep bond prices from recovering). Fortunately stocks, as represented by the Vanguard 500 Index Fund VFIAX is up 12.9% in purchasing power over the same 3 year period.
Flipped the stock futures from green to red NewHendoLib Apr 10 #1
The Federal Reserve needs to jack up interest rates some more. James48 Apr 10 #2
Disagree Johnny2X2X Apr 10 #5
Fed is too weak and too late to the inflation fight, as usual, as per the 1970s bucolic_frolic Apr 10 #3
Graphs: *CORE* CPI month by month and rolling 3 month average. EDIT: and regular CPI. And PCE core and regular progree Apr 10 #4
Thanks and good morning! BumRushDaShow Apr 10 #6
I've been hearing that since about September 2022 -- a year and a half ago -- progree Apr 10 #9
They have been "predicting" although I did see articles where there are some small drops BumRushDaShow Apr 10 #10
It was back in September 2022 and many times I've looked at the news since all these many months progree Apr 10 #12
AND BumRushDaShow Apr 10 #13
Fed weighs PCE even more Johnny2X2X Apr 10 #8
I added PCE and Core PCE to my assemblage of graphs in my #4 above progree Apr 10 #18
On average. Igel Apr 11 #29
Actually Johnny2X2X Apr 11 #31
Well, any such thing should DAMNED well include energy The Mouth Apr 10 #19
I'm showing graphs in #4 that include food and energy (the regular headline numbers) and the ones without it (core) progree Apr 10 #21
Thanks The Mouth Apr 11 #24
And thank you. I hate inflation too -- I was a young adult in the late 70's early 80's great inflation progree Apr 11 #25
I watched it wipe out my family's savings and future The Mouth Apr 11 #27
The business media and the GQP want us to crap our pants moniss Apr 10 #7
They are trying to equate "3.5%" being as bad as "9%" BumRushDaShow Apr 10 #11
I'm surprised it was that low hueymahl Apr 10 #14
I believe that's because what we feel is cumulative as opposed to a discrete point. When I buy groceries, my natural 24601 Apr 10 #17
In your example above, a 32% price increase over 3 years would indicate higher than reported inflation in 1/3 years SpicyBoi Apr 10 #22
We all have our own benchmark items we pay attention to. For some it's milk & eggs. For others, it's a gallon of gas. 24601 Apr 10 #23
In my world it's GASOLINE and ELECTRICITY The Mouth Apr 11 #28
The economy isn't that bad if people keep buying stuff IronLionZion Apr 10 #15
Nope. Igel Apr 11 #30
Costco style bulk purchasing is very American IronLionZion Apr 11 #32
Looking at CNBC.... Turbineguy Apr 10 #16
Email 'Mistake' on Inflation Data Prompts Questions on What Is Shared mahatmakanejeeves Apr 10 #20
Laissez-Faire Marthe48 Apr 11 #26
Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Consumer prices rose 3.5%...»Reply #18