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BumRushDaShow

(172,716 posts)
40. The point IS
Wed Apr 24, 2024, 11:20 AM
Apr 2024

that based on the election that we just had here in PA yesterday, there was a BIG "protest vote" on the GOP side, that has been consistent with almost every state that has had a primary so far with Haley somewhere on the ticket, where she has received somewhere around 10% - 16% of the GOP primary vote.

I.e., these are people who did NOT vote for 45.

Meanwhile the media has generally IGNORED THIS and instead focused on the "uncommitted" or "Bob" or Phillips vote that has generally been (on average), at 10% or less, in order to garner misplaced FUD.

This type of FUD happened in 2022 when Democrats rushed to "save" Patty Murray in WA, going by "polls" that proclaimed she was almost tied with her GOP opponent and it was BULLSHIT. But Democrats diverted money from OTHER races to solidify what eventually became a BLOWOUT by her -

The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative

By Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder
Dec. 31, 2022

Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat, had consistently won re-election by healthy margins in her three decades representing Washington State. This year seemed no different: By midsummer, polls showed her cruising to victory over a Republican newcomer, Tiffany Smiley, by as much as 20 percentage points.

So when a survey in late September by the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group showed Ms. Murray clinging to a lead of just two points, it seemed like an aberration. But in October, two more Republican-leaning polls put Ms. Murray barely ahead, and a third said the race was a dead heat.

(snip)

Ms. Murray’s own polling showed her with a comfortable lead, and a nonprofit regional news site, using an established local pollster, had her up by 13. Unwilling to take chances, however, she went on the defensive, scuttling her practice of lavishing some of her war chest — she amassed $20 million — on more vulnerable Democratic candidates elsewhere. Instead, she reaped financial help from the party’s national Senate committee and supportive super PACs — resources that would, as a result, be unavailable to other Democrats.

A similar sequence of events played out in battlegrounds nationwide. Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force. Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points.

(snip)

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html


And yes I agree that we are fine so far. We just need to make sure to GOTV for the general.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Let's just hope Mz Pip Apr 2024 #1
I am betting two to one that she endorses him Walleye Apr 2024 #2
The only Republican who won't endorse Trump will be Liz Cheney. sop Apr 2024 #4
Like Cheney, I doubt Christie will endorse. emulatorloo Apr 2024 #50
Nor would Kinzinger BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #54
Right? LuvLoogie Apr 2024 #19
or worse, I could see him offering her his VP slot, and her accepting it. I don't trust any republican. Power is the JohnSJ Apr 2024 #11
I don't believe she'd take it JohnnyRingo Apr 2024 #12
You might be right, but I wouldn't put it past her. For his deplorable party, it would represent a "unity" ticket, with JohnSJ Apr 2024 #15
For those who watch morning cable news gab13by13 Apr 2024 #3
MSM Old Okie Apr 2024 #48
I've always had confidence in the people of Pennsylvania Mysterian Apr 2024 #5
We have a huge Senate race here, gab13by13 Apr 2024 #7
i'm in south western pa et tu Apr 2024 #8
No Dems will vote for McCormack, we need to worry about the independents though FakeNoose Apr 2024 #29
Hopefully abortion and labor will get the Dems and Indies out for Casey... Wounded Bear Apr 2024 #30
Yes one would think so FakeNoose Apr 2024 #37
Trump recently endorsed McCormick Deminpenn Apr 2024 #42
McCormick is a carpet-bagger like Oz BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #58
Yes indeed FakeNoose Apr 2024 #66
He's one of the "business" types that you normally see running for office in Jersey BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #67
We only had one "flip" of an election from (D) - (R) since 1988 BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #10
Can Trump win edhopper Apr 2024 #6
PA has 19 electotal votes so that would be the factor BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #14
Yes. Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #22
A couple weeks ago the Pennsylvania GOP was gloating about a surge in voter registrations. tanyev Apr 2024 #9
"Looks like a lot of the new registrations signed up to vote against their candidate. " BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #18
Hoping that's a good sign for us for November IronLionZion Apr 2024 #13
Bravo! Teach the young to be liberal minded when they're young onetexan Apr 2024 #16
This is a tricky narrative. Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #17
"Biden is doing about five-points better (88% to 83%) tha Trump there." BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #21
I don't think there were any polls of the PA primary race. Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #23
"I don't think there were any polls of the PA primary race." BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #27
Did you actually read what I put? Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #28
Do you even know how to sort a spreadsheet? BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #36
Do you understand what recent means? Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #44
You do realize that when it comes to "state" polls BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #46
Which is exactly why I said your comparison is apples to oranges. Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #60
To address BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #61
Since you refuse to read my posts, I am going to pay you the same curtesy. I ain't reading that. Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #63
How about reading your original reply title BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #64
Go to the pa elections website Deminpenn Apr 2024 #45
I live on that site BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #49
Thank you BRDS - I've been saying the same thing since last year FakeNoose Apr 2024 #70
Those statistics are getting a little mangled whopis01 Apr 2024 #32
The point IS BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #40
If 10-16% is considered a big protest vote, then it's happening to Biden too. Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #47
READ WHAT I WROTE HERE BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #51
No one is claiming he's immune. It's just being consistent. Pretty Fly Apr 2024 #59
More need to educate BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #65
The MSM, along with the majority of polls and political wags cannot parse that this will be a very different election. Ford_Prefect Apr 2024 #20
I wholeheartedly agree - this is an election like no other FakeNoose Apr 2024 #39
Not that it's critically important at this time, but........... jaxexpat Apr 2024 #24
"Not Trump" does NOT equal "political heavyweight" DFW Apr 2024 #25
At this time, I think the media has determined Haley is the heir apparent to the GOP dynasty.........of disasters. jaxexpat Apr 2024 #43
There have "been signs" that Trump is "still struggling to garner support" Rocknation Apr 2024 #26
Hey, any article that starts with "Donald Trump suffers" is GREAT. Novara Apr 2024 #31
156,950 Republicans voted against Donald Trump In yesterday's GOP primary in the battleground state of Pennsylvania LetMyPeopleVote Apr 2024 #33
The votes for Nikki Haley are a good sign FakeNoose Apr 2024 #34
Generally, it's hard to win the WH with less than 90% in ones own party base... Wounded Bear Apr 2024 #35
Can you imagine the headlines if Biden was only pulling 83% of the vote? NT Happy Hoosier Apr 2024 #38
it's worse than that for sleepy don quakerboy Apr 2024 #41
I think this exaggerates his loss of support in the GOP space. LuvLoogie Apr 2024 #52
If that were the case BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #53
Meh LudwigPastorius Apr 2024 #55
"best that could be hoped for is that they sit at home come election day." BumRushDaShow Apr 2024 #57
PA is tired of him PennRalphie Apr 2024 #56
Imagine that, Dotard J Chump insults and threatens Hassler Apr 2024 #62
Kudos to your niece! She ROCKS!!! calimary Apr 2024 #68
Why on Earth do they keep telling us it's going to be close? wryter2000 Apr 2024 #69
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