Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning from south of Celestun to Campeche.
(snip)
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a
turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is
expected, and Milton is forecast to become an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane later today and maintain that intensity for
the next couple of days.
(snip)
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
(snip)
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