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progree

(11,877 posts)
8. GRAPHS - 3 month rolling average, and one month - both annualized. CPI and Core CPI
Wed Feb 12, 2025, 10:57 AM
Feb 12

The Last 5 years were revised for seasonal adjustment factors (my graphs' data bases are updated)

News report from the source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

I annualize everything to be comparable to each other and to compare to the Fed's 2% target

They are calculated using the actual index values, not from the rounded off monthly change numbers.

What grabs me is that CPI rise averaged 4.5% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 3.8%)
The January one month increase annualized is: CPI: 5.8%, CORE CPI: 5.5%


The last 3 months (Nov, Dec, Jan) are the "Trump trade" months. Although he wasn't president in November, December, or most of January (inauguration day was Jan 20), the righties claim that the stock market gains since the Nov 5 election are theirs, and call it The Trump Trade. For consistency, they need to own the CPI for those months as well, when businesses scrambled to adjust their inventories and supply chains to deal with -- as best they can -- the expected upcoming trade wars.

REGULAR CPI


CORE CPI = CPI less food and energy


rolling 12 months averages graphs are in the OP

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Kick. Everything he touches dies. bronxiteforever Feb 12 #1
When is he... liberalgunwilltravel Feb 12 #5
I don't have much confidence in the stock market.......................... Lovie777 Feb 12 #2
Pays to be contrarian, sometimes. Market slow to recognize that tRump is fixated on tariffs & Muck is breaking things Bernardo de La Paz Feb 12 #6
Gee Johnny2X2X Feb 12 #3
Increases due to tariffs haven't even started being reflected yet Wiz Imp Feb 12 #14
This is companies preparing for the tariffs Johnny2X2X Feb 12 #15
Right Wiz Imp Feb 12 #17
Don't expect the corporate media to talk honestly about it Johnny2X2X Feb 12 #18
Bend over, MAGAts liberalgunwilltravel Feb 12 #4
Dow drops 400 points after hotter-than-expected CPI report: Live updates mahatmakanejeeves Feb 12 #7
And then the Treasury yield took off BumRushDaShow Feb 12 #12
And when bond yields go up, bond prices go down. And Net Asset Values of bond funds go down progree Feb 12 #16
Well as a retired fed BumRushDaShow Feb 12 #19
GRAPHS - 3 month rolling average, and one month - both annualized. CPI and Core CPI progree Feb 12 #8
Trumpflation on the way. Old Crank Feb 12 #9
How long before tRump starts faking inflation numbers. groundloop Feb 12 #10
People can still see the prices when we buy stuff IronLionZion Feb 12 #20
From the source: mahatmakanejeeves Feb 12 #11
The biggest single-month increase in over a year Wiz Imp Feb 12 #13
Yes, the last time the monthly increase was higher was August 2023 (17 months before January 2025) progree Feb 12 #23
Wait a minute................. LilElf70 Feb 12 #21
The chickens did it. Blame them. On the other hand, any excuse, even one that hasn't started, Wonder Why Feb 12 #22
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