https://hbr.org/2024/12/what-the-last-trump-tariffs-did-according-to-researchers
What the Last Trump Tariffs Did, According to Researchers
by Thomas Stackpole
December 2, 2024
Last week, President-elect Donald Trump outlined a plan for sweeping new tariffs against three of America’s leading trading partners. In a post on Truth Social, his social network, he
promised that he was ready to sign an executive order placing 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency, with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. This is on top of earlier threats of imposing
60% tariffs on China and
a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on other imports to the U.S. — a protectionist plan that could reshape the U.S. economy in ways that have little recent precedent.
Even before this latest news, the specter of new tariffs — largely presumed to be against China — have affected companies’ behavior. The shoe company Steve Madden reported that it was planning to cut the amount of goods it produces in China — the source of about 70% of its imports —
in half. Other companies have started
stockpiling inventory ahead of potential price bumps.
There is some precedent, however: During Trump’s first term, his administration pursued the most protectionist policies in the U.S. since the 1930s. Most notably, tariffs against China — which then imposed retaliatory tariffs —
left 60% of U.S.-China trade subject to 20% tariffs. While trade relations stabilized, the tariffs that were introduced during that period were largely left in place by the Biden administration.
As such, researchers have had years to study the effects of these policies — and whether they worked as their architects and economists might have expected. They’ve also looked at who ultimately bore the increased costs.
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