Inflation rate hits 2.8% in February, less than expected

[progree]

5. GRAPHS - 3 month rolling average, and one month - both annualized. CPI and Core CPI

News report from the source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

I annualize everything to be comparable to each other and to compare to the Fed's 2% target

They are calculated using the actual index values, not from the rounded off monthly change numbers.

The CPI rise averaged 4.3% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 3.6%)
The February one month increase annualized is: CPI: 2.6%, CORE CPI: 2.8%

REGULAR CPI


CORE CPI = CPI less food and energy


rolling 12 months averages graphs are in the OP

One reason for the decline in the 12 month average aka year-over-year is that the big Febrary 2024 increases dropped out of the 12 month window.

CPI increase in February 2024: 0.40% (4.86% annualized)

Core CPI increase in February 2024: 0.37% (4.54% annualized)

The number dropping out of the 12 month window is just as important as the one entering the 12 month window.

If the incoming number is lower than the outgoing number, then the 12 month average drops, plain and simple. (Similarly with any n-month rolling average).