Consumer prices rose at annual rate of 2.9% in August, as weekly jobless claims jump

[progree]

17. What's interesting is how good the graphs looked back in mid-June when the May report came out

Back then, the rolling 3 month average and 1 month were both below 2% on an annualized basis,
and the 12 month average (year-over-year) just a little above 2%

But then it all turned higher in the subsequent months to where we're at now:

The CPI rise averaged 3.5% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 3.6%)
The August one month increase annualized is: CPI: 4.7%, (core CPI: 4.2%)

The 12-month average (year-over-year) increase is: CPI: 2.9%, (core CPI: 3.1%)

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I saw a headline at Yahoo Finance that this hot CPI report all but takes a HALF-point rate cut off the table at the Fed's Sept 17 meeting. The CME fedwatch tool now shows a 5.2% likelihood of that (and a 94.8% likelihood of a quarter point rate cut).

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html