2025 Year-End Challenger Report: Highest Q4 Layoffs Since 2008; Lowest YTD Hiring Since 2010

[Lonestarblue]

2. I expect a recession sometime in 2026.

Many companies stocked up on imports before Trump’s stupid tariffs took effect, but this year they’ll need to re-order and pass along higher prices to consumers, who will then buy less.

Trump has eliminated financial regulations on big banks to free them to make risky loans and invest in hedge funds, so I expect another banking crisis later in the year. In May, Trump will nominate a toady to replace Powell as head of the FED, and his orders will be to lower interest rates quickly, although he might get some resistance from FED governors. Depending on how the SC rules in the Lisa Cook case, Trump might be allowed to fire any governor who resists.

Republicans almost always cause recessions with their bad policies. This administration will be no exception.