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In reply to the discussion: U.S. payrolls rose 50,000 in December, less than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.4% [View all]progree
(12,747 posts)Last edited Fri Jan 9, 2026, 10:06 AM - Edit history (2)
Not Seasonally Adjusted: -192,000 in December
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Seasonally Adjusted: +50,000 in December
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
The seasonal adjustment in December is always in a big upward direction (in contrast to the ones in August, September, October, and November, which are historically downward revisions)
December is a very poor month for actual (meaning not seasonally adjusted) net job gains , most are negative.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
In the last 10 years: in thousands of jobs (i use double minus to make the negative ones stand out more) :
--213, --249, --201, --248, --513, +197, --309, --122, +41, --192
(January is a helluva lot worse: --2972, --2878, --3096, -2952, and so on)
====================================================
Back to seasonally adjusted numbers -- The previous 2 months were revised down by 76,000 combined.
So we have 26,000 fewer nonfarm payroll jobs than in the report that came out December 16. ( 50k - 76k = -26k )
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
-105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to
+56,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower
than previously reported.
Double check, from Table B-1, total nonfarm payroll jobs:
December 16 report, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12162025.htm
159,552,000 jobs in November
Today's January 9, 2026 report, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092026.htm
159,526,000 in December
159,526,000 - 159,552,000 = -26,000
This is nicht gut, Mein Fuhrer!