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modrepub

(4,004 posts)
4. Possible Pitfalls
Fri Jan 16, 2026, 09:10 AM
Friday

Relying on AI businesses to be around longer than 5 years seems a stretch to me. PJM projected about a 6%/year growth in electric demand for the last 2 decades. In reality, electric growth was flat during that time. Predictions out much beyond a year or so aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on.

$15B on new plants seems low considering projected demand. A new 1GW NG combined cycle power plant was about $1B. Combined cycle are twice as efficient as old coal plants but still take many years to permit and build. Am worried in a rush they’ll put simple cycle plants in that are half as efficient and produce way more pollution.

Rushing things leads to mistakes. My guess is there will be a big mess to clean up both environmentally and economically.

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