His first entry there -
FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver’s Political Calculus
Welcome (and Welcome Back) to FiveThirtyEight
By Nate Silver August 25, 2010 11:25 am
FiveThirtyEight.com premiered on March 7, 2008, three days after Hillary Rodham Clinton won the Democratic presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio — victories that were widely described as giving her momentum in her race for the Democratic nomination. Mrs. Clinton was already well ahead in the polls in the next big primary contest, in Pennsylvania.
From reading news reports or watching the nightly gantlet of cable news programs, the message seemed to be that there would be a close fight between Mrs. Clinton and Barack Obama through the final contests in June (and perhaps to the Democratic National Convention in August) — with each candidate about equally likely to prevail.
To those of us who had been following the numbers, however, the outcome was hardly so uncertain. Presidential nominations are not determined on the basis of momentum; they are determined on the basis of delegates, and Mr. Obama had a significant advantage there — thanks to a long string of victories in midsize states throughout February, and huge margins in some smaller states on Super Tuesday that gave him a lead of about 150 pledged delegates. Even if Mrs. Clinton had achieved a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, she would still have trailed by more than 100 delegates, and it would have been all but impossible for her to catch up with few large states left to vote.
Things went rather badly for Mr. Obama from that point in the campaign on: the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. controversy surfaced just a few days after Mrs. Clinton’s wins in Texas and Ohio, and Mr. Obama was feeling critics’ heat after he suggested that small-town voters had been “clinging” to guns and religion. He lost the Pennsylvania primary by 9 points, and managed barely more than a quarter of the vote in some other late-voting states like West Virginia and Kentucky. Yet he won the nomination easily. There would be no floor flight in Denver. The math trumped the momentum.
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He was there from 2010 - 2013 and it looks like that archive is still intact. Then he left for ESPN (which had become ABC property under Raygun in,1984) -
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Blog Is to Join ESPN Staff
By Brian Stelter
July 19, 2013
Nate Silver, the statistician who attained national fame for his accurate projections about the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, is parting ways with The New York Times and moving his FiveThirtyEight franchise to ESPN, the sports empire controlled by the Walt Disney Company, according to ESPN employees with direct knowledge of his plans.
At ESPN, Mr. Silver is expected to have a wide-ranging portfolio. Along with his writing and number-crunching, he will most likely be a regular contributor to “Olbermann,” the late-night ESPN2 talk show hosted by Keith Olbermann that will have its debut at the end of August. In political years, he will also have a role at ABC News, which is owned by Disney.
An ESPN spokeswoman declined to comment on Friday night. Mr. Silver declined to comment. The employees, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that Mr. Silver’s deal could be announced as soon as Monday. Before creating statistical models for elections, Mr. Silver was a baseball sabermetrician who built a highly effective system for projecting how players would perform in the future. For a time he was a managing partner of Baseball Prospectus.
At public events recently, he has expressed interest in covering sports more frequently, so the ESPN deal is a logical next step. Mr. Silver’s three-year contract with The Times is set to expire in late August and his departure will most likely be interpreted as a blow to the company, which has promoted Mr. Silver and his brand of poll-based projections.
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