Andy Burnham wins Makerfield by-election, paving way for him to challenge Keir Starmer as Labour leader

[StevieM]

9. Rayner has made it clear that she is supporting Burnham.

At this point, though, I think everyone realizes that Burnham will be the one to replace Keir Starmer. The only person who might not realize that yet is Starmer himself.

During the campaign, Burnham said that a leadership contest was initiated by Wes Streeting, and he planned on joining it. That made him sound less ambitious, aggressive, or whatever word you want to use. But it is doubtful that Streeting will try to challenge Burnham, assuming he could even get the 81 MP backers he would need to enter the race, which is unlikely.

Alistair Carns has been getting bets placed on him for a while because he came out after the losses in the local elections in May and said that someone needed to challenge Starmer, and if nobody else would, then he would do it himself.

Those numbers just represent the random bets that were made by people on a longshot idea that ran through their minds. None of them are expected to pay off. When the numbers get that low, you are no longer talking about comparative odds.

Burnham is essentially being given a 96 to 98 percent chance of becoming the next prime minister.