Russia preparing possible 'provocation' in Baltic states or Poland, sources say

[fujiyamasan]

11. They want to test their defenses

Similar to what Israel (and the US) did last summer with Iran.

Putin needs to get a more concrete check on NATO unity. I don’t think he needs another shooting war. It’s not just about Trump either, but European states as well. He’ll probably wait until Starmer is gone, because he’s been clear on where he stands in the conflict. There’s been remarkable unity and continuity so far between parties in the UK with regards to Ukraine. I’m sure the next Labor PM will follow through. But if somehow Farage comes to power…say due to a snap election or something…

Putin also knows Europe is hurting from high gas prices and needs to test their resolve. It will likely be calculated and more provactive than actual kinetic damage.