Climate change models predict remarkably accurate results

[NickB79]

14. Except that the large feedback loops are just now kicking in

The IPCC projections were accurate over the past 30 years when climate change was just starting to ramp up, largely because it didn't HAVE to take many large, difficult-to-model, positive feedback mechanisms into account. They simply didn't exist at the time because we were still so early in the warming process. Today, those positive feedback mechanisms are accelerating much faster than the IPCC thought possible. The snowball rolling down a hill doesn't stay at a static speed; it accelerates over time.

Take Arctic sea ice for example. The IPCC projections stated that we wouldn't see the lows we're currently seeing for another 40 years. We'll likely be ice-free in the Arctic by the end of this decade, something that blows the models out of the water. The same goes for methane release, permafrost greening and permafrost thawing. The divergence up there from the predictions is really mind-blowing.