He'll run, if only to protect his father and his brother from future prosecutions by preventing the release of additional records from the previous Bush Administrations.
Jeb had his own role in many of those crimes: allowing the Brooks Brothers riot and refusing to prosecute Abramoff and others for it; holding the door open for illegally submitted late absentee ballots from the military (how many of those kids are dead or insane now?); taking off with a C-130 loaded with ballots and landing without any; dragging his feet on anthrax investigations relating to the death of the guy who published the photos of the Bush twins drunk....
It will be fun, lots and lots of fun, to revisit those darkly criminal incidents, which were successfully covered up and not prosecuted, but which were never, ever explained and therefore which are perfectly reasonable to ask about... and be told new lies about them. A Presidential campaign is the perfect place to tie those balloons to Jeb and just... watch 'em float up there. And, it will be an excellent way to underscore how truly awful things were then, and how much they have improved since.
Most of the career criminals who started with Nixon and gamed their way to the top with Shrub are retired to cushy and incredibly wealthy lives. I don't think they'll be willing to go out and steal it again for Jeb, because they are comfortable and safe staying out of it. So Jeb might be a better candidate than his narcissistic and ignorant brother, but he'll have the B-list of campaign supporters--the chumps who have lost the last six Presidential elections and who only got close enough to steal them twice.
Jeb Bush is their guy this time, that's for sure, exactly because Republicans haven't come close enough to steal a general election without a Bush on the ticket in twenty years. He's all they have left, and I wish to see his family's criminal career and his party totally destroyed.
So fuckin' bring it on.