Hamas loses Iran funds for backing Syria rebels

[happyslug]

13. Not quite true

Syria, as we now know it, did NOT really exist prior to the French Occupation after WWI. Like most of the "Fertile Crescent" outside of the Tigris and Euphrates river valleys, each valley and each city tends to be its own "Nation-State" even when they were paying tribute to someone else. The classic situation is Judea under the Romans. Rome ruled Judea, but the Jewish religious hierarchy, which controlled the Temple of Jerusalem, where pro-Persia (At that time ruled by the Parthians, who were related to the Pushtans of modern day Afghanistan). Rome wanted Palestine to make sure Persia could NOT use it to take Egypt, Palestine had long been a major invasion based to Egypt (See my Side note below):

Even under Rome, Byzantine, Arab, and Turkish rule, these ruling "powers" were just looking at who would pay what taxes, not loyalty as noted in most "Modern" countries. Tribe and trade relations was more important then who ruled the Country (For example, long after the Crusades had ended France would send troops and supplies to the Christians of Lebanon and Syria, even while both were ruled by Turkey.

One of the reason the Father of Assad moved into Lebanon during the Lebanese Civil War, was that his tribe's long time trading partners, the Christians in Lebanon was losing out the the Shiite Moslems lead by what later would become Hezbollah. At the same time the President of Syria was trying to make his branch of Islam (Alawis) more Sunni, then the mix of Christianity, Shiite and Ismali Islam it has been.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Syria

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ismailism

Now this can be a problem. Alwais celebrate not only Islamic Holidays, but Christmas, Easter and Palm Sunday (And thus often called "Christians" by the radical Sunni Moslems that is they main opposition and thus you read of such Moslem Radicals celebrating they fighting with "Christians&quot .

The Alwais are also called "Seveners". In Shiitte Islam, they are two large branches, those that recognize the descendants of Ali to the Seventh Generation as the Legitimate Caliphs (And thus called "Seveners", and those that recognize that "Rule" to the 12th descendant of Ali (Thus called "Twelvers&quot . Iran are "Twelvers", while the Alwais are "Seveners" (as were the "Assassins" of the Middles Ages).

More on the Assassins (But ignores the fact that the main protectors of the Assassins after the Mongol invasion was the Hospitaliers in lands of Palestine they still held till driven out).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassins

Now some maps do reveal some points: Here is one on Religion in Syria:





Here is a Map where the fighting is occurring:


http://www.polgeonow.com/2013/03/syria-uprising-map-march-2013-9.html



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria

Here is one on population Density:


http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/maps.shtml

In simple terms, most of the Sunni majority areas is where the fighting is, once the revolt hit the Shiitte and Christian areas, it started to die out. The Huge Area in the South East of Syria is a low population area that everyone is ignoring for few people live there (for it is desert).

Thus the groups inside Syria and Lebanon have had long ties with France (The Christians being Catholics in both Countries) and Iran (The Moslems along the coast of Syria are Shiites like Iran). Just like the Alawis are "Seveners" while the Iranians are "Twelvers" the French are Roman Catholics, while the Christians, while many recognize the Pope, tend to be of Eastern or Orthodox Church. Thus a clear division exists, but that is being ignored given the pressure on both Iran and the Alaiws by the Sunnis in full revolt.

As to Russia, till after WWI had a difficult time reaching anyone in Syria due to the only sea lane was via Istanbul. In the 1930s a treaty was sign permitting non-capital warships through the straits but all that permitted was shipment of goods to Syria and Egypt starting after WWII. Thus almost no contact between Russia and Syria prior to WWII.

As to Persia and Russia, prior to the Conquest of what is now often referred to as the "Former Soviet Central Asiatic Soviet Republics" in the 1870s, Persia relationship with Russia was in regards to areas now making up those Former Soviet Republics. With the overthrow of the Shah, the Former Soviet Union, and now the Russian Republic has increased exchanges with Iran/Persia but it is of recent origin not older then the 1980s.

Just a comment that this is NOT a long term alliance, but one that is convenient to all parties at the present time. All want to reduce US power in the Middle East and for that reason alone they are working together, not due to some "Long term Relationship".


Now one of the Concern when it comes to Syria, is Israel, Palestine, which is not Israel, has long been the base to invade Egypt (or to support an invasion from Egypt). Such invasions of Egypt have a long history, here are some example of such invasions:


1. The first recorded invasion is by the Hyksos around 1600 BC (which may just be an migration that later lead to them taking over Lower Egypt), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyksos

2. Next was the Assyrians had done around 685 (Through the Assyrians did not rule Egypt, they installed a new, Loyal to Assyrian Pharaoh, who kick out the Assyrians when the Babylonians destroyed Assyria),
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_dynasty_of_Egypt

3. Next was the the Persians under the son of Cyrus the Great had taken Egypt around 525 BC, lost it around, 402 BC. then retook it again around 343, and lost it to an invasion from Palestine lead by Alexander the Ground around 332 BC. Cambyses, the Son of Cyrus the Great of Persia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambyses_II

4. Alexander the Great invasion of 332 BC was via Judea

5. Ceasar's expedition to Egypt, while he traveled by ship, the Troops he needed to defeat the Eygptian Army came via Judea. http://www.roman-empire.net/republic/caesar-index.html

6. By the time of Augustus's invasion of Egypt, Judea was 100% loyal to him and no Navy existed to destroy his invasion force. Thus Judea/Palestine not needed, but that it was loyal was a huge factor.

7. 619 AD, The Sassanid Persian Conquest of Egypt, reversed by Emperor Heraclius in 629 AD (Heraclius won Egypt in a Peace Treay after invading Persia and all byt destroying the Sassanid Dynasty):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sassanid_conquest_of_Egypt

8. 639, the Arab Invasion of Egypt (An important factor had been the ten year rule by Persia, Persia had kicked out the old landlords and that reduced the rent the peasants had to pay, thus when Egypt returned to Roman Rule, it was disliked and when the Arabs appeared, Egypt refused to fight to remain in the Roman Empire).

9. The Fatimid's would take Egypt from the West (Tunisian and Libya) around 969, this was due to the Collapse of the Arab Empire and thus Palestine was controlled by no one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatimid_Caliphate

10. The Invasions of Egypt by the Crusaders in 1070-1072, just before the Third Crusade, the invasion was weak, and more an attempt to keep the Fatima's in power then a full scale invasion, but it shows the Palestine was the base needed to actual take and hold Egypt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crusader_invasions_of_Egypt

The Ottoman Conquest of Egypt in 1517:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt_Province,_Ottoman_Empire

Now Egypt has been other invasions of Egypt, from other directions, some were successful (Napelon's conquest in the 1790s is a classics example), but most were failures, for example the Byzantine attempted invasion of 646, but without troops able to march from Palestine it failed, as did the various Crusades invasion of Egypt after the Third Crusade:
http://www.witness-pioneer.net/vil/Articles/companion/20_uthman_bin_ghani.htm

Thus the real contest here my be Egypt instead of Syria. If Iran can help Assad hold onto Syria, Iran and Hezbollah will have a very loyal ally as a result (Assad will own his rule to them). On the other hand, losing Syria will cut off Iran from any potential support outside of Russia (The Persian Gulf can be cut off by the US Fleet). In many ways, a loyal, but Neutral Syria will be more useful to Iran in any Iranian-US war then anything else. If the US invades Syria, it shows US aggression, thus the US has good reasons to leave Syria alone, even while it is a supply route for supplies for Iran, supplies to be used against US forces.

Thus in many ways this is a fight for position. It is to weaken Iran and strengthen Saudi Arabia and its ally the US. If Assad loses control of Syria, Iran can NOT count on supplies from that area AND it is one more potential invasion point into Iran. I do NOT want to say this is the first step of a US invasion of Iran, but Syria no longer an ally of Iran would strengthen the US position if such an invasion occurs. Weakening Iran may be the sole US intention (i.e. NO invasion of Iran) as oppose to any other plans (including any invasions anywhere).

While France has had a relationship with people in Syria for 3-400 years, as has Iran, Russia has not till after WWII in regard to Syria and since the 1979 Iranian Revolution in regards to Iran. Egypt has concerns as to Syria, for it is next to Palestine which is the best base in invade Egypt from. Saudi Arabian''s concern is its Shiite minority that live along the Oil Rich Persian Gulf AND potential loss of Egypt if situation in the Middle East is not settled. The house of Saud disliked the expansion of diplomatic relations between Egypt and Iran, and emphasizing the Sunni-Shiite fight in Syria may be part of its plans to keep Egypt out of the hands of the wrong Moslem Radicals (Saudi Arabia supports Al Queda, but opposes Iran, thus the "Wrong Radicals" are Shiite radicals, even when they have majority support, as oppose in Al Queda radicals).

This is more and more looking like an Saudi Arabia vs Iran fight as oppose to "Moderate Arabs" vs Al Queda fight. Only time will tell who will win AND what they are truly fighting for,