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In reply to the discussion: George Zimmerman Emerged From Hiding for Truck Crash Rescue [View all]Kurska
(5,739 posts)" not everyone in Sanford drives, not everyone would stop to help someone in a rolled over car etc....)", clearly that is not the only variable, but it is a decent rough estimate. If you knew how to perfectly calculate the probability of an event like that by taking into account all RELEVANT variables you'd be a very rich person.
The point I've repeatedly been trying to stress is that Zimmerman being involved in a murder trial very evidently does not greatly effect his probability of passing by an accident on his way to wherever he was going. Independent vs. dependent events are not an incredibly complex concept, but it is amazing what people will willfully misunderstand. Lets say I stop to help someone on the side of the road. You can calculate the probability of me wearing green socks and stopping to help a person on the side of the road, but you can't combine the probability of the two and make it seem less likely I will because I WOULD HAVE STOPPED REGARDLESS OF WHETHER I WAS WEARING GREEN SOCKS OR RED.
There are only 50,000 people in Sanford and Zimmerman is in Sanford. You can make a very rough estimate (not accounting for car ownership/age etc...) that there is about an equal probability that any of those 50,000 people could of passed by that accident and decided to help, it just happened to be Zimmerman.
The person I was replying to implied that because it just so happened to be Zimmerman that is proof of a conspiracy. They also came up with some amazingly fanciful many digit number of a probability out of thin air, which is just odd.
My position on the trial was that it was a great tragedy and that of the only two people who actually know what exactly happened that night one is dead and the other has no reason to tell the truth if he is lying. I hope I meet your purity standard.