Scott Brown Leads Elizabeth Warren In New Massachusetts Poll

[karynnj]

25. Not true

There are many reasons that polls can have built in bias, but no professionally done poll will simply poll only in certain areas. As to not knowing anyone polled, there are two explanations - one is simple mathematics. Most national polls have at most about 600 respondents. Consider how many polls of this size most be taken to cover even 1% of entire population. It should be rare to be polled. I am 61 and was polled just once. The other thing is that being polled is not all that exciting. It is possible that someone you know could have been polled and never mentioned it.

The reasons for built in bias is that even if they used the voter registration list - and it was too late to register, there would be the problem of non-response. That has risen greatly over the years. The assumption made - that the people in the multidimensional demographic group who are reached are the same as those not reached. A necessary and not all that bad an assumption when the non-response rate is low - a more troubling assumption when that rate becomes lower.

I would take Mass's comment at race value. She is from Massachusetts and has watched the polls over various elections and is clearly very knowledgeable in her comments. This may be a fluke, but the last poll that had her 3 ahead was down from the 7 ahead. You might want to follow the articles on Brown and Warren in the Massachusetts papers. This could be a blip because the Massachusetts papers all gave him full credit for the insider trading bill - and in fairness he and Gillibrand were the two who independently edited the House bill written by WA and NY Democrats. Their bills were referred to the Homeland Security committee where there were hearings and a combined bill - under the chair's name (Lieberman) was the bill that passed. To my knowledge - and I am NOT from Massachusetts no one in the MA media called him on his grandstanding and accosting the President to get Reid to take a vote on "his" bill. Brown may have come out as hard working, strong, principled etc - yet I would bet that is the behavior that likely leads to his peers labeling him a jerk.

What can be taken from BOTH of the last two polls is that Warren has yet to connect with the independents to the level needed. I think that the comment on the occupy movement was a self inflicted error - no matter how welcome it was here. There is no question that she is far more serious, principled, in line with Massachusetts than Brown. It is also likely true that Brown is the more natural politician - in some of the worst ways. Watch the video on the birth control amendment. He lied straight faced when called on its actual provisions. In addition, he is completely shameless in using the legacy of Ted Kennedy - here and at the groundbreaking of his building. (Note that Kerry, friend for 30 plus years and for whom Kennedy was a mentor, when asked after Kennedy's death if he would fill Teddy's role in the Senate. His answer - no one could, but that he would work hard for the same ideals.)

I think Warren needs to do a lot more to reach more people personally in Massachusetts and needs to be able to articulate what things she wants to do. I hope that she will be able to get some reluctant supporters who fear that that contest could mean the difference of McConnell or Reid. I hope that this poll is an aberration - taken at a Brown high and happening to pick up support on the high end.