Scott Brown Leads Elizabeth Warren In New Massachusetts Poll

[RBInMaine]

31. Nice post. Here are some other important thoughts to note though:

First, early polling like this doesn't mean much. Next, that said, I would bet this was at least a bit of an abberation which can occur in polling. For example, here in Maine in November some polls had it as a close race in our referendum election to kill the new Republican anti-voting law. In the end, we won by 20 points. Why so close in two of the polls? Because the polling models and procedures were flawed. They over-polled more Republican leaning voters and under-polled lower income folks, students, less likely voters, and single women, many of whom do not have landlines. They also did not do well accounting for our side's superior turnout operation. Even in scientific polling models, some of them can produce inaccurate results. I'm willing to hazard that the poll showing Brown up so far was somewhat off base for similar reasons. It is hard to imagine that there was such a swing toward Brown in so short a time even with him getting some good recent press.

Now, Warren is campaigning ALL OVER the state and is drawing good crowds. But yes, it is always hard to beat an incumbent, and a lot of people are not yet paying attention and Brown still has more name recognition. And yes, to win she needs to get more indies. And yes, Brown is personable and likeable. All true. But so is Warren, and she is actually doing pretty well as a new campaigner. She aint no Martha Coakley. To win, she will need to relentlessly press her economic issues, and she will need to be willing to go on OFFENSE BIGTIME and attack Brown on all his Republican anti-job votes and also including his most recent vote in favor of the Blunt attack on women's reproductive rights. She must run the video of Brown asking David Koch for money a thousand times. She must DAMAGE the guy bigtime by creating a narrative that he is of, by, and for the right wing rich and privileged and not just this
"average guy who drives a truck". He will have more money, but she will have a lot of money too. She will have a good team, and women voters will flock to her bigtime. She will have a strong base of support and volunteers.

I think once she wins her primary and we get more into the spring, things will come into better focus. The Dems did well in MA in 2010 because they learned from the loss of Teddy's seat to Brown. These are new times, and Dems will be even more energized in Mass.

So, it is still early. Taking out Brown won't be easy. But it is very, very doable in a state where registered Dems outnumber R's 4-1. But it will only happen with the RIGHT campaign.

Yes, right now they need to ATTACK Brown on his vote in favor of Blunt's crazy bill. Then need to push this issue RELENTLESSLY. It will not bode well at all with women in MA, even with many R women there. If Warren can overwhelmingly energize and win the MA women's vote, she will most likely win that race especially if that women's vote crosses party lines and brings in tons of indie women and some R women.