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Comrade Grumpy

(13,184 posts)

27. That is a very risky calculation. Some benefits, huge possible blowback.

Sat Aug 24, 2013, 01:57 PM

Aug 2013

The Assad regime is not losing this war. While it is not completely crushing the rebels, by all accounts it has taken the upper hand in recent months. Why it would resort to a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus suburbs as UN inspectors arrive is more than a bit puzzling, especially knowing it would lead to heartfelt howls for intervention. Why try to prod the West into intervening?

The rebels, on the other hand, stand to benefit tremendously.

This is just too perfect. It smells like a set up to me. Perhaps one day we will know definitively what happened. Right now, I encourage Obama to not act rashly.

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MSF confirms Syria 'chemical deaths' [View all] Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 OP

Horrible philosslayer Aug 2013 #1

Agree 100% Taverner Aug 2013 #13

But, from a purely humanitarian viewpoint, can the international Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #19

"unimpeachable and irrefutable source"? Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #2

Thats only with regard to the occurence dipsydoodle Aug 2013 #3

I agree that a chemical agent of some kind was released. Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #5

"Obama draws a line in the sand on Syria"... Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #10

I'm not following you. Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #20

Merely pointing out the dubious nature of your suggestion that Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #22

Why? Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #23

December 6, 2012 vs. "within a month or two"... Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #25

Is that really your defense. Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #29

When I read your "month or two" statement, something Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #35

Exactly, you looked up the exact dates. Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #37

Your defense is childish. GeorgeGist Aug 2013 #49

LOL. I am not offended in the least. Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #53

Using chemical weapons has been given as something beyond the pale for a long time - karynnj Aug 2013 #11

Right. I think I'm following you. Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #21

Hi neighbour! Thanks for adding the clarification. I thought Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #6

In the crucible of multiple combat zones, and over many years, Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #4

Whoever produced and sold them these poisons felix_numinous Aug 2013 #7

"...just plain evil..." Word! Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #8

+++ 1,000 +++ n/t RKP5637 Aug 2013 #51

Yes, but the key question, "Who?" still comes down to "Who benefits?" leveymg Aug 2013 #9

What a "panier de crabes" (basket of crabs) as the French would call it... Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #12

It's a good question. Igel Aug 2013 #31

Inextricably complex scenario. You're right about the Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #33

Nice word salad. GeorgeGist Aug 2013 #50

We would shake our finger at the Qataris, and bury any mention of the Saudis Scootaloo Aug 2013 #14

And how would Russia react to us going in there? christx30 Aug 2013 #15

If ever there was an international "tinderbox", Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #16

There is nothing to be gained from going in there. christx30 Aug 2013 #39

I doubt it. AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #42

Per Juan Cole, the government does benefit, if the dictator wants to terrorize his population. pampango Aug 2013 #17

Thanks for posting this discussion from Juan Cole. He's a pretty credible analyst. Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #18

With that logic it would seem the rebels would use it. Arctic Dave Aug 2013 #26

That is a very risky calculation. Some benefits, huge possible blowback. Comrade Grumpy Aug 2013 #27

Assad's purported gains do not equate with an expectation of victory any time soon. branford Aug 2013 #46

Sorry, not buying that. Stakes are too great in keeping the US and NATO out. Assad isn't crazy or leveymg Aug 2013 #28

I agree with Juan Cole's assessment...... rdharma Aug 2013 #32

Why? What do they have to gain/to lose? That calculation is essential. leveymg Aug 2013 #34

The Syrian govt. can not stop the rebels by conventional means. rdharma Aug 2013 #38

Actually, the Syrian government has been making steady gains against the rebels. Comrade Grumpy Aug 2013 #40

I have no idea who it was, but the US should not intervene either way. David__77 Aug 2013 #41

Agreed. nt rdharma Aug 2013 #45

I don't know where you heard that. But the opposite is the case. nt rdharma Aug 2013 #44

As I mentioned in another post in this thread, Assad's "gains" are a far cry from victory. branford Aug 2013 #47

Yep. There's no doubt that they have resorted to this as well. AverageJoe90 Aug 2013 #43

this was posted yesterday and no one noticed madrchsod Aug 2013 #24

The Middle East reminds me of the snake pit scene from "Indiana Jones and the Lost Ark"... Surya Gayatri Aug 2013 #30

Wow...now that is some imagery Supersedeas Aug 2013 #36

+1, n/t RKP5637 Aug 2013 #52

An interesting quotation from the article burnodo Aug 2013 #48