Putin says Russia will assist Syria if attacked

[happyslug]

40. No, Russia will have a hard time getting planes on target

Russian planes has to fly over the Black sea, or the Caucasus Mountains, then over Turkey (Maybe Iran, but if the Russian fly via Iran, they have to fly over Iraq to get to Syria) to hit anything in Syria.

Turkey has indicated it will NOT permit its bases to be used by NATO and if that is the case then the nearest Air Base in Cyprus. Greece, the nation closest to Cyprus and Cyprus have both indicated support for Assad and opposition to using the Cyprus bases to attack Syria. Cyprus under the treaty for those bases can not stop the use of those bases by NATO, but they have enough 105 mm Pack howitzers to prevent NATO from using those bases, till the Howitzers are taken out (which can be done within days, but will tie up planes for the first couple of days of any attack on Syria. The possibility of a delay may prevent the Cyprus bases from being used).

Thus, the nearest safe base is in Sicily. While a F-15 can fly from Sicily to Syria without refueling, it is at the maximum range of the F-15 (i.e. in flight refueling will have to be done to make sure the F-15 can make the flight). F-16s and F-18s have shorter range and thus MUST use in flight refueling if Sicily is the base.

Egypt has said it will refuse passage through the Suez Canal of any warship aimed at Syria, but the US has the Carrier the USS Nimitz sailing up the Red Sea to the Suez Canal (Strong evidence that this statement by Egypt is intended to Egyptian domestic population only, the US already has approval for the Carrier to go through the Suez Canal). Along with the French Carrier already in the Mediterranean, that should be enough air strength.

Thus Russia will have a hard time getting planes to hit targets in Syria, but NATO will also have a hard time, not as hard as Russia, but still difficult. The main reason for this is oil and who get what oil from whom.

Turkey's, Greece's and Cyprus's oil come from Iran (Cyprus's via Greece, Cyprus has no refinery so it imports already refined goods, mostly from Greece). This seems to be the main reason none will permit NATO to use air bases in their country.

The top three NET oil exporters are:

1. Saudi Arabia....................8684
2. Russia..............................7201
3. United Arab Emiriates......2590

http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?topL=exp

Please note the US is the 11 largest EXPORTER of oil but is a NET IMPORTER of oil, I bring this up for the top three EXPORTERS (NOT NET EXPORTERS), has Iran replacing United Arab Emirates as #3, Iran imports a lot of refined oil from Kuwait and other nations in the Persian Gulf), Thus the above three are more imported then the "Top three exporters"

List of Exporters of Oil:
http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?topL=exp

LIST OF NET EXPORTERS:
Country.............................Exports
1 Saudi Arabia......................8,684
2 Russia...............................7,201
3 United Arab Emirates........2,590
4 Kuwait..............................2,410
5 Nigeria..............................2,254
6 Iraq..................................2,235
7 Iran..................................1,829
8 Angola............................. 1,778
9 Venezuela........................1,712
10 Norway...........................1,646
11 Canada...........................1,578
12 Algeria.............................1,547
13 Qatar...............................1,389
14 Kazakhstan.....................1,355
15 Libya................................1,313

Notice it takes the next three net exporters. United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Nigeria to barely exceed the net exports of Russia. Iraq has a comfortable margin over Iran, but Angola barely beats out Venezuela. Thus if Russia, Iran and Venezuela do a Oil Embargo, that is more then 10% of the world exports just disappears. i.e about 11,800 out of just about 90,000 barrels expected to be produced in 2013.

10% does not sound like much but itis believe to be no excess capacity any where in the world. From the 1970s to about 2005, Saudi Arabia was believe NOT to be producing to full capacity. Saudi Arabia held back production so it could control the price of oil world wide. From 2000 onward, it appears Saudi Arabia used up it excess capacity in a futile attempt to keep prices down. The House of Saud was very good at putting the best face on the situation (i.e. after the price went up, claimed that new price was the price they had really wanted, after months of dumping oil to keep the price of oil from raising).

Russia, by itself EXPORTS 8% of world wide oil. Saudi Arabia's net export is 9.4% of world wide oil production. United Arab Emirates exports just 2.9% of world wide oil production, Iran 2% of world wide oil production.

World wide oil production:

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1

Now, the above sound small, but the US produces 12% of world wide oil production and uses almost 20% of world wide oil production (we import the 8% we do not product domestically).

Now Shale oil production is expected to boom till about 2017 (When the US may even become an net oil exporter, if current trends in domestic oil CONSUMPTION continue to decline AND Tight oil production increase till its expected peak in 2017, then it is expected to drop so that by 2020 domestic production will equal domestic production of 2012).

I bring this up to show how Dependent the world is on RUSSIAN OIL. The world is almost as dependent on Russian Oil as it is on Saudi Arabian Oil. That makes oil the most powerful weapon Russian has. If I was Putin I would not even move ships off the coast of Syria except to observe. Once the US attacks Syria, just stop all oil exports, No exceptions till a country shows it is no way supporting the US attack (i.e. Germany gets no oil till it shuts down the US bases in Germany).

China is a net oil importer, but its main source of oil is Iran, second is Russia. Russian can continue to export to China is exchange for support for the Embargo. Thus Russia can still received foreign currency via China (just as Iran has been doing over the last five to ten years).

This is NOT the 1970s, when Europe was dependent on Persian Gulf Oil and the US was just importing just 10% of its oil (and mostly from Mexico). In the 1970 China was a net oil EXPORTER, now China is the #2 consumer of oil in the world (Just behind the US who is #1). China has HUGE US Dollars to out bid anyone for oil, maybe even the US. Thus a lot of exporters will ship to China for it will pay the highest price. Mexico and North Sea Production are clearly in decline (England has become a net oil IMPORTER, as it was in the 1970s). Canada oil production has and will increase, but it is no where near Mexico's oil production in the 1970s and 1980s. Venezuela.s oil production has shifted from the Low Sulfur (Sweet) oil to heavy high sulfur (Sour) Crude. Most of the refineries that can handle such Heavy Sour Oil are in Texas. Saudi Arabia says it can still expand oil production, but over the last few years its production of Light Sweet Oil has held steady and its increases has all been in Heavy Sour Crude.

My point OIL is Russia's most potent weapon, Since 2000 world wide oil production has had a hard time matching up with price. Oil prices peaked in 2008, but such prices were only partially driven by speculators. The speculators made bets that oil will go up given the shortage of production and the stead increase in demand. When prices peaked and fell, the Speculators then jumped on that downward slide and drove the price down but no where near what it had been in 2001.

The reason prices then stop falling and started to increase, was the price of oil had dropped below the marginal cost of production of what are called "Marginal producers". A marginal producer is someone who production is needed to meet demand at a set price. Do to high cost of production such marginal producers will only produce oil when the price of oil exceeds their cost of production. When ever the price of oil drops below they cost of production, they stop pumping oil (or in the case of Shale/Tight oil, they stop drilling new wells). These marginal producers stay on the sideline till the price of oil goes back up. As the price goes up and the price of oil exceeds the cost of these marginal producers to pump oilm they resume oil production.

The Shale oil/Tight oil market in the US is an example of such marginal producers. As long as the price of oil was below $50 a barrel, such tight wells were NOT profitable (cost more to drill and pump the oil, then what the producers could sell the oil for). When the price of oil jumped to over $100, these wells became profitable to be drilled and pumped. This additional oil provided more and more oil to the general public, till the demand for oil was satisfied, then the price stabilized.

In theory this should be a stable price, in practice it is not. To many marginal producers drill at times of high oil prices, but end up pumping during times of low oil prices. They lose money, but drilling the well was the big cost, so they continue to produce, for when you can not maximize your gain, you minimize your lost and in such cases pumping the well till it is dry minimize the loss (but given no real profit comes from the well, no additional wells are drilled till the price of oil goes back up).

Thus you have times where there is to much oil and prices drop, then periods of to little oil and prices climb. Thus the prices up and down since 2008.

The two big exporters of oil thus can cause huge fluctuations in price by just stopping production. Neither one can replace the other, and none of the other oil producers can replace either of them. The next 3-4 producers are no where near the top two and any one of them can affect price, but only for a limited time period, probably less time then the oil in the Strategic oil reserve. Saudi Arabia and Russia, would be much harder to replace. forcing the world to look elsewhere for its oil reserves. Thus oil is the most important weapon in the hands of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is an America Ally, thus Russian is the true wild card when it comes to oil supplies and use of the Oil Weapon against the US,