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In reply to the discussion: Syrian forces may have used gas without Assad's permission: paper [View all]KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)9. That is absolutely untrue. From Der Spiegel a few days ago -
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/situation-in-syria-deteriorates-as-west-looks-for-answers-a-919733-2.html
snip
Yet, it is perhaps irrelevant who gave the order since the entire Syrian leadership is reportedly afraid that the defense lines will collapse. These fears have been fanned by a number of developments over the past few weeks: the unauthorized withdrawal of previously Assad-loyal militias to their Alawite villages; the feared rebel offensive; the declining morale of the regular troops; and the rising losses without military victories to show for them.
The poison gas attack was probably carried out by the 4th division of Assad's army. Experts and defectors agree that this is the only unit that possesses launching devices for chemical weapons. Immediately following the chemical attack, it shelled rebel positions with conventional artillery -- but was unable to take a single location.
Instead, the division lost at least seven tanks in the Damascus neighborhood of Harasta alone. A rebel video provides an insight into the lack of personnel among the elite division: Two crew members flee a burning tank -- but they are wearing no uniforms, no helmets and no radio gear. Shabiha militia members have apparently been forced to fill the gaps in the ranks of the army.
The images are highly significant and don't correspond with reports that Assad has strengthened his military position. Military experts and intelligence agents had been circulating this theory for months, ever since the battle for control of the small town of Qusayr in early summer. Under the leadership of over 1,000 fighters from the Shiite Hezbollah militia from Lebanon, Assad's troops were able to recapture Qusayr.
Snip
Nevertheless, the myth of a military turning point in the regime's favor has persisted since June. This has also hampered the search for motives for the poison gas attack: Many observers wondered why Assad should use chemical weapons if he is winning the war already. In actual fact, the situation has been difficult for the regime's troops for quite some time now. Since the spring of 2012, many of the army's positions have only been supplied from the air because all land routes are under the control the rebels.
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Even Obama now acknowledged that this appears possibly to have been the case at the G20 presser
leveymg
Sep 2013
#28
The source for the 4th Div. rumours are DEBKA, and that appears to have been disinformation.
leveymg
Sep 2013
#34
What - the use of VX or its recipe? Syria has plenty of it, but there have been no reported use.
leveymg
Sep 2013
#53
Then the absolute worst is if he falls and it all gets dispersed which we want to contribute to.
dkf
Sep 2013
#4
Will you trust the rebels more, given that they have a substantial Al Qaeda component?
daleo
Sep 2013
#47
How safe will it be if the rebels prevail and then have control of the chemical weapons themselves?
VanillaRhapsody
Sep 2013
#54
We can eliminate the chemicals from the equation....that is one thing...
VanillaRhapsody
Sep 2013
#68
Fair is fair - then any strike against his forces also will have not have his permission. I do not
24601
Sep 2013
#6
then that is almost worse. Assad has lost control of the military. If this is the case he needs to
KittyWampus
Sep 2013
#7
Wow, you think Assad stepping down results in better control of CW...how does that work?
dkf
Sep 2013
#13
Or, it *could mean that after 4 months of pestering he said "What the hell, go for it."
Turborama
Sep 2013
#63
The officer may have been relieved of his command, permanently. We have the intercepts from that
leveymg
Sep 2013
#31
In that case, we cannot agree to this being done in our names, and will oppose this war.
leveymg
Sep 2013
#42
This is a slow-simmering regional war waiting to boil over with a little extra fuel. We can provide
leveymg
Sep 2013
#58
After 2003, we have a well-founded fear of lies about limited wars that get us into longer wars.
leveymg
Sep 2013
#64
I read they have given up on the theory that it was the brother. Will see if I can find the source.
dkf
Sep 2013
#18
Brutal methods are hardly unique to Assad in this war. Both sides have to be held accountable,
leveymg
Sep 2013
#45
So, why did we, the Brits, and particularly the French organize exile groups and rebellion?
leveymg
Sep 2013
#72
Of course, the entire operation was predicated on regime overreaction. These things always are.
leveymg
Sep 2013
#74
I'm sure no one was more effective at communicating to Assad the consequences of use of chem weapons
leveymg
Sep 2013
#77
Americans refuse to be victimized again, in the same way, by the same set of deceivers waging the
leveymg
Sep 2013
#50
Regime change by other means. Another Admin., another domino. How is this different, really?
leveymg
Sep 2013
#70
And so then launching more strikes could transform the army into a group of chemical-armed militias.
David__77
Sep 2013
#36