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csziggy

(34,189 posts)
10. The accident rate is interesting - having just watched "The Challenger Disaster"
Sun Nov 17, 2013, 10:34 AM
Nov 2013

About how Richard Feynman found that the safety estimates for the shuttle program were pulled out of NASA's ass:

Feynman suspected that the 1/100,000 figure was wildly fantastical, and made a rough estimate that the true likelihood of shuttle disaster was closer to 1 in 100. He then decided to poll the engineers themselves, asking them to write down an anonymous estimate of the odds of shuttle explosion. Feynman found that the bulk of the engineers' estimates fell between 1 in 50 and 1 in 100. Not only did this confirm that NASA management had clearly failed to communicate with their own engineers, but the disparity engaged Feynman's emotions. When describing these wildly differing estimates, Feynman briefly lapses from his damaging but dispassionate detailing of NASA's flaws to recognize the moral failing that resulted from a scientific failing: he was clearly upset that NASA presented its clearly fantastical figures as fact to convince a member of the public, schoolteacher Christa McAuliffe, to join the crew. Feynman was not uncomfortable with the concept of a 1/100 risk factor, but felt strongly that the recruitment of laypeople required an honest portrayal of the true risk involved.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogers_Commission_Report#Role_of_Richard_Feynman


Considering how many drone flights by necessity are secret, how can Bloomberg possibly estimate the accident rate with any accuracy? IMO, more likely some 'source' told a researcher that was the accident rate. With the increased use of drones even that supposedly 'low' accident rate is unacceptable and a danger to people.

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