Russia Would Answer Conventional Attack With Nukes, Official Says

[happyslug]

13. China has no plans on Siberia

The dispute with the Soviet Union was over the potential for a Soviet Invasion. Once the Soviet Union collapsed such a possibility ended. Presently they are no border disputes and no dispute over ideology (China says it is Communistic, but it is not, Russia gave up being Communist in the 1990s).

Worse, you do NOT attack you energy supply. Russia is the main source of Natural Gas for Europe and wants to become the main source for China (and both countries are working on achieving that). Presently less then 4% of all energy used in China is Natural Gas (but that is expected to change). 70% of its energy use is coal.

China presently produces 3.7 trillion Cubic feet per year, a number that is expected to raise.

Half of China's Imports Natural Gas comes from three Countries: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, all by pipeline (about 1 trillion Cubic feet per year)

The other half (All imported Liquefied Natural Gas) is more disbursed:



China is opening up one huge natural gas pipeline (1 to 1.4 Trillion Cubic Feet per year) from Turkmenistan and another from Uzbekistan. China will be importing similar amounts from two lines from the Russian far east (China also has a smaller pipeline from Myanmar, formerly called Burma).

Thus within a few years China will be importing, via pipelines 5 to 7 Trillion Cubic feet of Natural Gas per year, all from former states of the Soviet Union (and all in close relations to Russia). China is also expanding its LNG terminals, so China can import Natural Gas from the Persian Gulf AND is expanding its own Natural Gas fields.

Russia does NOT have much in Liquefied Natural Gas Capacity (preferring to ship its gas the cheaper pipeline method). Remember it takes about the energy in one cubic foot of natural gas, to compress two cubic feet of Natural gas into a liquefied form (Liquid Natural Gas only exists under high pressure). Thus Liquefied natural gas cost about 1/3 more then natural gas piped in by a pipeline.



https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRwrugzG0AxQ-U9YI5emzUp6PdeLMKDMyYTiGmnGEceP4pEEptG8w

Long term plans is to ship Iranian Natural Gas to China via the Former Central Asia Soviet Republics, again with Russian cooperation. Thus the famous comment, you do NOT attack your energy source, unless you can take it all over quickly. The Siberian Natural Gas is in Northern Siberia and would take the Chinese a long time to take it for the roads are terrible, off road travel is impossible the the railroads (the best way to travel) all go east-west not north-south.



A secondary problem is China is looking for ways to ship to Europe without risking engaging the US Navy, thus Russia and China have both worked together to provide rail service from China to Germany: Freight trains leave China twice a week and take 18 days to get to Germany, half the time it takes by ship:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/10/us-kazakhstan-railway-idUSBRE9590GH20130610

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_China#New_connections_to_Russia

The biggest problem is the change in gauge. Russia's rail gauge is 5 feet (1520 mm), while China and Europe uses 4'8'' (1435mm) track. That 44 mm or 4 inches makes the rail cars incapable. Right now, it is easier to move the containers from flat cars from one gauge to the other. This has to occur TWICE, once as the Train leaves China (Technically Kazakhstan, it has built a 1435 mm line next to an existing 1520 mm line, so the Chinese car can reach its capital and make the switch there. Then another switch in rail cars occurs in Brest, on the Belarus-Polish border, this time from rail cars with 1520 mm gauge to cars with 1435 gauge.

Please note other shippers had been shipping via these routes since at least 2011. These tended to go via Manchuria to the Trans-Siberian Railroad not Kazakhstan then to the general Russian railway system. Thus China has committed itself to two ways to get its products to Europe via Russia. By ship such shipments can take up to 30 days, by train 15-23 days (In 2011 Daimler embraced rail, more do to the fact it took three days to go from its factory in China to the Chinese Coast, then onto a container ship. That made the weight for the product in Europe even longer.

No, over the last 20 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, China and Russia have slowly been moving closer and closer together. Chinese are all over Eastern Siberia with Russian cooperation. Thus a fight between those two countries, in the foreseeable future is unlikely. China sees the US as its potential enemy, and then over a fight over oil and Natural gas off its coasts (something Russia has no interests in at the present time or foreseeable future). They are conflicts, but given the greater fear of the US, all minor that both sides do not think is grounds to fight.

Furthermore, China is looking to upgrade Russia's railroad and build parallel roads of 1435 mm gauge, so to speed up fright travel to Europe by eliminating the change of gauge. One or two sets of track across Russia is all China wants, and Russia has no real objection to that plan (in fact supports it, for it would permit more exports from Russia).

No, unless there is a Radical Change in the Government of China or Russia, I foresee no conflict between them. They are to dependent on each other and becoming more so.