China's top envoy to Germany has warned the West against punishing Russia with sanctions

[DetlefK]

11. Russia's pretext is the will of the people!

Russia is not claiming territory in Ukraine in Crimea. It's presenting itself as protectors of the russian part of the population who is threatened by extremists.
"What do we hear? A protester died? Great, now we HAVE to send russian peace-keepers into an ukrainian city."


Imagine, the policy of China and Taiwan getting closer continues. Eventually, some people in Taiwan will demand that Taiwan join the PRC. Imagine demonstrations, arrests, tear-gas, water-cannons. If the violence would go on long enough, sooner or later someone is bound to die and that's the pretext China needs to send troops to protect the harassed political minority who supports the PRC.

It's a stretch, off course, but if China manages to send in troops in a quasi-legal pretext, without provoking the US-fleet near Taiwan, Taiwan's fate is sealed.