Russia clarifies Ukraine stance as Sergei Lavrov meets John Kerry in Paris.

[karynnj]

11. Any agreement from Kerry and Lavrov would need to be agreed to by Ukraine

The fact is that the original Kerry proposal (that Putin responded to) included input from the EU countries and the Ukraine. It obviously was approved by Obama, who likely set some overall parameters before Kerry gave it to Lavrov.

If you use the Syrian chemical weapons negotiations as a guide, both sides are likely not giving their real bottom line in public. (no more than you would if buying or selling a house) before negotiations. What resulted was something that met the basic outline that Kerry demanded - with the time line longer, but defended as as fast as the experts reasonably thought possible.

This is more complicated, because it is much more personal for Russia. However, given that outside experts have said the sanctions have had a negative impact on the value of the ruble and the strength of Russia's economy - I would take Lavrov's comments on them with a pretty big grain of salt. In addition, his comment that the G7 could not throw Russia out as it was an informal group with no membership is laughable. It was a big deal when they were invited it -- and they wanted the G8 conference in Sochi.

Ukraine is preparing for new elections that I think are in less than 2 months. I suspect that in these negotiations, Kerry will almost have to act as not just Obama's representative, but will have to negotiate something that the current Ukrainian Parliament will agree to.