Ukraine agrees to host NATO war games

[happyslug]

40. Paranoia is normal for a country without natural borders

You have to understand that area knows as the "Steeps". i.e. from Poland to the Pacific.

Remember this rule of Geography: Rivers unite people, mountain divide people. Large oceans divide people, but small seas act more like Rivers in that they unite people.

Except for the Urals (which end just to the NORTH of Steeps, the "Natural" Border (i.e. mountains and large oceans) do not exist between Silesia (Border of Poland and Germany), the Carpathian Mountains that separate Poland from both the Czech Republic and the Slovakia Republic. Those same mountains separate Romania from the Ukraine and Poland. The Black sea separates Russia and the Ukraine from the Balkans and Turkey (The Black sea also act like a river and lake in bringing the Ukraine and Southern Russia within easy travel of Turkey). The Caucasus Mountains separates Russia from the Former Soviet States south of those Mountains (And Turkey and Iran). The Mountains of Iran separates Iran from the Former Soviet Republics of Central Asia (Through this tends to make those Republics subject to Iranian and Russian influence for both countries are easy to travel to). The Himalaya Mountains tends to keep Afghanistan isolated from Russia, as do the mountains of China (again, like Iran, China ends up sharing much of the Steeps with Russia, for both Iran and China are large countries with extensive contacts reaching into the Steeps).

Thus the "Natural" Border of Russia are the Mountains of Silesia, then the Carpathian Mountains, then the Black sea, then the Caucasus Mountains, then the mountains if Iran, the Himalayas and then the mountains of China where the Great Wall of China is located (North of the Great Wall, you are into the Steeps).

Over the above "Natural Border" you have rivers that bring people together, the Vistula for Poland, the Dnieper for the Ukraine, the Pripet Marshes for Belarus (The Pripet Marshes flow into the Dnieper but being a swamp, isolates its inhabitants from the Ukrainians to their south, Russians to their East and Poles to their west).; The Volga and the Don Rivers are the Rivers of Russians (Who then extended to the Ural rivers and then the Rivers of Siberia).

The various Tarter/Turkic/Mongol tribes who lives to the east of Russia, tended to be herders, who after 1400 were slowly replaced by Russian Farmers coming from Russia. Thus the Russians marched east, much like Americans went west, one new farm at a time, and generally going from one River to the next River on their way East to the Pacific.

As to the area from Poland to Russia, the various people are concentrated along the above rivers. Since it was easy travel from one river drainage area to the next river drainage area, the various slavic speakers mixed up with each other in those areas furtherance from each slavic speaking river. Poles and Ukrainians mixed in the area between the Vistula and the Dnieper Rivers, Russians and Ukrainians between the Dnieper and the Don Rivers. The Belarus mixed in with the Poles, west of the Pripet Marshes, Ukrainians, south of the Pripet Marshes, and Russians east of those same marshes. Russians and Ukrainians mixed it up between the Don and the Dnieper Rivers.

Thus any border between any of these countries are lines drawn in the sand. Each people have a central heartland, along their river, but once you get to far from that river, the people tend to get mixed up together. Worse, the land between these rivers is very good farm land, so everyone wants them to be farmed and in the days before tractors that meant having a lot of small farmers working those fields (Some time as free farmers, sometimes as serfs, as far as national identity being a free farmer or serf did not matter, it did matter as to who the crops went to, but not the identity of the peasant working the fields).

Till the late 1700s, when Catherine the Great put down the last of the independent pastoral tribes, raids from the Turkic/Mongol/Tarter tribes were not unusual. These tribes relied on the lack of any natural barriers to cover huge areas of land on quick raids.

Thus you have four countries, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, without any real firm natural borders. Worse, till conquered by by Russia starting in the 1400s (and ending in the late 1700s, except for the former Central Asia Soviet states, which were taken over by Russia only in the late 1800s), the same can be said of the various tribes east of the Ural River.

Thus the border between these countries are changeable, and any change will produce conflict, as will the lack of change (i.e. an area, now filled with Ukrainians, but located in Poland, or an area now in the Ukraine, but populated with Russian speakers).

It is worse in Winter, for the Pripet Marshes and the other marshes in the Steeps all freeze over and the Steeps become one flat pancake (and it was this situation what the Mongols exploited when they took over Russia in the period 1200). The Slave raids of the Turks from 1400 to the late 1700s tended to be winter raids for the same reason, no need to worry about crossing a swamp or river, all would be frozen).

Side note: More then one historian had pointed out that Napoleon and Hitler's biggest mistake was attacking Russia in the Summer, if they had attacked in winter no need for bridging equipment to continue the attack across any swamps or river they ran across. A Summer army can not take a Russian Winter, but a Winter Army can take a Russian Summer, the Mongols showed that to be the case.

Thus Russia has no natural border, it has no Atlantic and Pacific ocean to discourage an attacking country. Worse, China and Iran had both been part of the base that was used by attackers of Russia. Genghis Khan had Northern China before he attacked Russia around 1200. Timerlane, around 1400, used his base in what is now called the Former Soviet Republics of Central Asia AND Iran, as his base to attack the Golden Horde, that then ruled Russia (Out of the attacks of Timberlane, the Golden Horde was weakened so that later on in the 1400s Russia could free itself from tribute to the Golden Horde and later take over the Horde, but raids from these Turkic/Mongol/Tartars continued till the 1800s, Russia was only able to stop the raiding into Russia for slavs by taking over Kazakhstan in the 1860s (and 1830 report, estimated that 200 Russians were captured and sold into Slavery every year in Kazakhstan).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_Khanate#List_of_raids_by_Kazakhs_on_Russia_territory

Thus Russia has fears, fears ground in geography and history. Russia does NOT fear the small nations around it, thus after the Revolution Russia was willing to accept Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuanian independence, but not if any of those countries permit themselves to be used as a base for someone else to attack Russia (Sweden used the Baltic States for this in the late 1600s and early 1700s, as did the Teutonic Knights before them). Russia does fear the LARGE Countries around them, China, Iran, Turkey, Poland, Sweden and Germany. Russia also fears those countries, not on their borders, but that have landed troops on Russian soil, such as the US, Britain and France (The US has landed troops on Russia Soil, during the Russian Civil War of 1919-1921, the US troops were only pulled out when it was found that the US Soldiers were TALKING to the Russian Communists soldiers opposing the US "Plan" for guarding supplies that had been intended for the Czar's troops from falling into Communists hands).

Russia thus has concerns with NATO on its doorsteps and will always have concerns of large armies on its frontiers. To move troops that close to Russia is asking the Russians to be paranoid. Remember the old statement "Sometimes people are Paranoid for they are people out to get them". In the case of Russia, Russia is seen as the biggest obstacle to total American domination of the planet and thus you have a group of right wingers who will do anything to weaken, if not destroy Russia, and that would make anyone living in Russia Paranoid, even if Russia did not have it geography and history to make then paranoid.