Top NATO Commander: U.S. Troops May Be Sent To Eastern Europe

[happyslug]

51. What military Deterrent????

The Ukraine is NOT a member of NATO and has no base presently adapted for NATO. The Black Sea has been a Russian Lake since the time of Catherine the Great and no Carriers are permitted to enter the Black sea UNLESS they have a secondary function as an anti-submarine ship (Thus all Soviet carriers had Anti-Marine capacity, so they could go through the Straits).

Now, Turkey could break its treaty in regards to the Straits between the Mediterranean and Black seas, but that would risk a cut off of its natural gas supplies from Iran (who is closely allied with Russia right now). A second concern, through it appears to be minor today, is what will Greece do? Greece, like Turkey is a member of NATO, but synthetic to Russia. In fact prior to Greece recent economic melt down, Greece was the #1 support for the Kurdish rebels in Southeast Turkey (Greece supplied guns and ammunition, but none that could be traced back to Turkey).

Romania is now a member of NATO, but has poor infrastructure, worse then the Ukraine. The nearest bases that meets minimum NATO needs are in Poland. Thus does Poland want to make Russia mad at Poland by supporting the Ukraine? Especially since many of the supporters of the present Government are supporters of people who killed Poles during WWII and have said that parts of Modern Poland should be Ukrainian AND the Poles that are in the Ukraine should be sent to Poland?

Thus the problem is HOW does the US respond to a overt Military action by Russia? And if Russia just moves into area where they are a large Russian speaking population, how does the US drive out the Russian Army while appearing NOT to drive out the Russian Speakers? The later is important for such actions is a war crime, civilians must be protected, even if they are hostile to the invaders.

A complication is fuel, What will NATO and the US do if Russia cuts off not only the Natural Gas flow into Europe but also Russian Oil? Now, Russia is the #2 oil EXPORTER in the world, if it would cut back exports that would cause a world wide increase in the price of oil. What would you do if the price of oil hits $10 a gallon? I remember 1973, when the US was importing less the 5% of its oil, and OPEC cut off oil supplies for just three months, and you saw the price of gasoline double almost overnight. It was another period of tight oil supplies, The North Sea, the North Slope and the huge Siberian fields would not open till the mid 1970s. Today we have a similar tight oil situation, a cut off of oil supplies could lead to a doubling of the price of oil as it did in 1973.

Side note: in 1990 the US expelled Iraq from Kuwait, and shut off Iraqi oil from the world market place, but that was during the oil glut of the 1980s and 1990s where the supply of oil was so large that the price kept dropping. Saudi Arabia had to step in a cut its own production in the 1980s to keep up the price of oil. Thus in 1990 you had surplus oil capacity and Iraq's oil was NOT needed to meet world wide demand for oil. The problem is that in 2014 we would need Russia oil to keep the price of oil from doubling, if Russia does not export, the market for oil is so tight the price of oil could double over night (and some people with access to better numbers then I have, say that may be cheap, it could triple).

Russia is already trying to ditch the dollar for its foreign exchange, it has sold oil to China in Rubles and Yuans not Dollars, Russia has accepted Iranian oil in exchange for Russia goods again avoiding the use of the Dollar.

Just to point out three things:

1. US military action in regards to the Ukraine is limited, due to its location and the lack of US bases around that area and the restrictions on Carriers entering the Black Sea.

2. The US has addicted to oil, and anything that stops the flow of oil will hit the US hard. Unlike 1991 or even 2003, the market for oil is extremely tight. The US could attack, but Russia's best defense may be to cut off energy supplies to Europe. The sources of that energy is even deeper in Russia, and the closest nation to it is Red China.

3. Russia has one of the largest hold of US dollars, thus Russia can spend that money even if trade is completely cut off.

4. The Fuel for US Troops in Afghanistan comes from Russia, if the US attacks Russian Forces in the Ukraine, the first thing Putin will do is cut off that fuel line. It is Spring and the mountain passes between Afghanistan and Pakistan are open again, and the winter wheat crop is growing and will be harvested in a few months. At that point the Summer Fighting season in Afghanistan will begin, for the crop be in and the Rural supporters of the Taliban would be free to fight. This is all contingent on Pakistan keeping the two passes between Afghanistan and Pakistan open. Pakistan may demand higher pay to permit supplies through, AND Russia could send in its won Special Forces to aid the Taliban to destroy those conveys.

Now, Russia would be hurt by all three of the above action, but Russia knew that before it took the Crimea and found that taking Crimea was worth more then the potential harms. I suspect Putin has accepted that he will have to cut off Oil and Natural Gas to Europe to stop the US (Thus the recent German Chancellor's comment that Putin was Nuts, which implies to me the Chancellor has been told of Putin's options by her own military and hates them, for it would hurt Germany the most).

Thus would GERMANY permit the US to use its bases against Russia? And by German Basis I include the US bases in Germany, not German bases in Germany. Chancellor Merkel appears to be in a bind, a bind she hopes to get out of. The bind is appeasing the US by showing Germany under her is a loyal ally of the US, while trying to appease Putin so Putin does cut of the Natural gas and oil flow into Germany. Merkel dare not call the American President Insane, but Putin she can without suffering any internal German political harm.

My point is Obama's and the US's option as to the Ukraine are limited. The Military option may not even be on the table, do to objections from Turkey, Romania, Poland and Germany (objections given the the US, but NOT released to the Press) and the US own Military in regards to US troops in Afghanistan.

Also remember the largest opposition to Putin inside Russia itself is the Communist Party. You do not hear much about it in the US, for the US tends to talk about the non-communist opposition to Putin, who are small in numbers compared to the Communists. Given how the Coup in Kiev took place and the subsequent rough treatment of Communist party members in the Ukraine, the Communist Party of Russia supports Putin when it comes to the Ukraine.

In simple terms, as long as Putin keeps any Russian Forces no further West then Kiev itself, the US will do nothing. Even if the US did do something, it would be to operate in an hostile population area, which is what the Russian Speaking parts of the Ukraine will be (much like Iraq and Afghanistan and even Vietnam). How do you keep a people in one country, when they want to join another? That is the problem when it comes to Eastern Ukraine and maybe even Southern Ukraine. Now Western and Central Ukraine would be friendly to NATO invading army, but then how would an American Commander handle such "friends" when he or she starts to see them murder Russian Speaking civilians and the army moves East?

Thus Russia has options to attack the US, the price of oil is the biggest weapon. We could destroy those pipelines, but then the Oil still does not get to the west. Ukraine still uses Russian Gauge Railroads, so any invasion would require switching trains on the border of Poland and the Ukraine, or moving the tanks by themselves till they get to the battle field. Air power will have to come from Germany and Poland, both of which would be hit the hardest by a shut off of Russian oil.

Sorry, the Ukraine in 2014 is NOT Iraq in 1991 or 2003. The world is different, oil is now tight, as are supplies of Grain (Russia is still one of the top grain exporters, remember the Arab Spring followed Putin's cut off of Russian Grain exports the year before, that shut off kept Russia break prices down, but drove up the price of bread in the Middle East and the result was unrest and the Arab Spring. Does the US want another Arab Spring, this time against even more US allies?). I do not think so, I suspect the Colonels and Navy Captains in the Pentagon has told the Obama administration the above sad facts of life and thus the military option is off the table.