In pictures: Russian military build-up near Ukraine

[happyslug]

46. It is hard to determine if fuel tanks are full

Tanks eat oil, thus must be followed by fuel trucks. No Fuel Trucks, no movement to far from the local fuel depot. Remember tanks do NOT use Miles per gallon, but Gallons per mile, roughly 2 gallons to the mile.

During the attack on Iraq in 2003, the biggest problem was getting fuel to the M1 Tanks as their swept along the southern deserts of Iraq. We ended up using Planes to drop off huge oil packages to feed those tanks so they could continue to move (This is in addition to the semi-trailer trucks following the tanks, the semi-trailers had a problem going on the desert sand and thus the need to use plane to supply the fuel).

Russia is a net oil exporter, so no need to worry about getting oil, the issue is getting the oil to the tanks. Trains can be used for that purpose, pipelines can be used, as while as fuel trucks. Thus the key is FUEL and can the tanks not only get to the border but penetrate it without running out of fuel first.

Everything else is secondary, including food (which prior to the adoption of the internal combustion engine was the biggest restriction on the movement of any army).

As to showing the real thing, the problem is I suspect the photos do not show any movement of fuel into those areas around the Ukraine, other then what is normal. That is hard to show, Tanks lined up just looks so much more deadly then counting fuel trucks.