Ukraine says Donetsk 'anti-terror operation' under way

[bemildred]

12. I doubt it.

Having an election provides legitimacy. The objective of the current government, as I see it, is to get to the election and obtain a result supportive of their policies, if not themselves. That is part of why the use of force is a mistake, they are repeating Yanukovich's error.

It was no accident that the Crimea election happened quickly, Putin had the advantage of knowing the outcome and being sure it would be satisfactory, so he could do it right away. Kiev doesn't have that advantage, its electorate is split, and a longer campaign will be necessary in order to "shape the electorate", but this is not the way to do it, and I don't think they wlll make it to the election if this goes on. All this fighting just makes the spilt more intense.

It is worth remembering that E. Ukraine is an arms manufacturing region. A few tanks and APCs and whatnot operated by poorly trained operators are not going to change the outcome.

Neither Putin or Kiev is in a position to force their will on Ukraine in perpetuity, they both will need the support of the population to rule and prosper there, and you won't get that by shooting at them.