Midterm Election Indicators Daunting for Democrats

[AnalystInParadise]

40. If Hispanics only made up 8%

in 2010, 6.5% is not that big a stretch, I agree it is too low, but it is not outrageously too low. Michael Tomasky only has the hispanic vote at 8% in 2010 and the African American vote at 10%, plus 4% Asian/other. 22% minority voters with us winning about 16.5% of that vote is not a great place for us to start. If white voters vote 60% or better of the remaining 78% of the electorate (IF this election resembles 2010 at all), we have problems.

It is not much better if we reduce the white vote to 75% of the overall total and keep them at the 2008 level of support at 58%. If we do that and split the minority vote the exact same the Teapublicans still get 49.7%. Close enough for shenanigans. Bottom line if the Pubs get more than 58% of the white vote and the electorate is anything other than the 2008 electorate we have problems.


For us to win back the House and keep the Senate we need an electorate that resembles 2008. Without that, we have a very hard climb ahead of us. It is not impossible but anyone thinking we have this in the bag, or thinking we are better than even money right now is just not paying attention.

GOTV

Tomasky math from 2010:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2010/nov/03/us-midterm-elections-2010-turnout-says-a-lot