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In reply to the discussion: Ukraine: Donetsk bridges blown up to halt access to rebel-held city [View all]bemildred
(90,061 posts)Suddenly, Ukraines army is winning. Over the weekend, Kievs troops recaptured several cities in the eastern Donetsk region, sending pro-Russian rebels fleeing to strongholds further east. Now, President Petro Poroshenko is planning a complete blockade of the regions two other main cities, Donetsk and Luhansk, according to a Ukrainian television report that quoted the deputy head of the countrys National Defense and Security Council.
Thats a striking turnabout from just a few weeks ago, when Ukraines forces seemed ragtag and reluctant to fight. But it doesnt mean that a military victory is likely, or desirable.
The cities retaken over the past few days were relatively small (the largest, Kramatorsk, has a population of 165,000) and lightly defended. Donetsk, the regions biggest city with some 1 million inhabitants, is still in the hands of rebels. Rooting them out would be a long and brutal process. They would have to do it street by street, says Mark Galeotti, a professor of global affairs at New York University. The cost in body bags would be high.
True, Ukraines forces are now better trained and equipped than before, thanks in part to $23 million in recent U.S. aid. But theyre still no match for Russias militaryand Russia wont let Ukraine retake Donetsk without a serious fight, Ian Bremmer, head of the political risk research firm Eurasia Group, told Bloomberg Television today. Although the flow of aid to the rebels from across Russias border appears to have slowed, it could resume at any time, turning the battle for the city into a bloodbath. I dont see the Ukrainians holding Donetsk and the Russians sitting on the sidelines, Bremmer said.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-07/why-ukraine-cant-win-an-all-out-military-victory-and-shouldnt-try