Ukraine says plane shot down by rocket from Russia

[Igel]

7. Last I heard the jury was still out a bit.

One of the crew said it was an air-to-air missile, but that requires heavy verification.

Others are saying that it was an surface-to-air missile but that could have been fired from something brought over from Russia into Ukraine or from Russia itself, given their range. "Buk" was one system name that was suggested, but again, verification is needed.

The area it was shot down is over near Krasnodon, which is a hot point. A lot of people from Lugansk proper said that the armored vehicles were moving "in the wrong direction," given the attacks by the Ukr forces in the north and west of the city. They were heading towards Krasnodon. If Krasnodon is cut off from the border, it'll be bad news for the rebels: They rely on near-nightly influxes of money, fighters, munitions, and armored vehicles from Russia. Tanks, APCs. It's not uncommon for the Ukr press to report on a convoy of 40 or 60 vehicles crossing the border, and a few hours later for the rebel's press to announce that they've gotten reinforcements "from elsewhere".

So a recent convoy included a series of Grad missile launchers, and a few hours later it was announced that a bunch of recently arrived Grads were deployed against the Lugansk airport and against Roskoshnoe. Claims are the convoy before that included Russian experts to help get a munitions factory and an armored vehicle repair plant up and running in Lugansk. Apparently the munitions factory was moved to Barnaul during WWII, and never fully repatriated--when it mostly moved back to Lugansk a portion of the "company" stayed in Barnaul, so they shared equipment and expertise. The Lugansk workers vanished, so the claim is they brought in workers from Barnaul. There are also claims reported as confirmed that the rebels now have T-72 tanks.

So if there's new equipment, that's where it would be spotted first, and since that transit point is so important it's where it would be employed--even if it hadn't quite crossed the border. (The polite claim is that the border guards on the Russian side are simply blind and incompetent. The less polite claim is that they're helping when not turning a blind eye.)

Note that if you go SW a ways towards D'yakovo there are new clashes in an area that has never been really quite but has become quite active in the last few days. As the Krasnodon area comes closer to being cut off from Russia, the DNR folk have been trying to reopen the border crossing at D'yakovo. They can't let their supply lines to the Fatherland be cut off and stay cut off given their heavy losses and reliance on all things Russian.