United States Assessment of the Downing of Flight MH17 and its Aftermath

[happyslug]

54. Or I agree that the Ukrainian Rebels shot down this plane, but Putin the greatest threat no....

Even Kissinger pointed out you do not spend billions of dollars on the WInter Olympics Games to show you are one with Europe (and even agree to stop executing prisoners to appease Europe and Putin has kept that pledge) and then throw that all away by taking over the Crimea and having a fight with the Ukraine.

Putin has been reacting to crisis-es not causing them. The White House does NOT like how Putin has handled those crises, but Putin's actions were reactions to other things NOT something Putin started.

Did Putin send in troops to take over the Crimea? Putin did not have to, by treaty Russian troops were already in the Crimea. It was those troops the drove out the Ukrainian forces (And the lack of support for those Ukrainian forces from the local population made and resistance to the Russian take over pointless).

In many ways, the take over of the Crimea is something Washington wants to undo, for by taking over the Crimea and having the people of the Crimea to join Russia, Putin ended up with all the Ukrainian Claims to deep Black Sea oil. The Law of the Sea says any off shore oil right up to 200 mile off shore (and that includes ALL of the Black Sea) belongs to the country the oil is off shore of UNLESS another country 200 mile limit extends into that area, then the division is equal distance from each country. By this rule Crimea is the borders for ALL of the Ukraine claim to the Deep Black Sea oil and thus the coup that installed the present Government of the Ukraine became meaningless, if the goal was to get access to those Black Sea Oil Deposits.

Under the rules the US imposed on Serbia in the 1990s, the Crimea is a free of the Ukraine. The US is now claiming no one can succeed from another country, without that country's permission. The problem is that is what Kissoff did in the 1990s, left Serbia without Serbian Permission. The law is one way or another, not what you want it to be when it is convenient to you. This is what Putin is counting on as to the Crimea.

Remember Putin did NOTHING till the Coup that overthrew the Government of the Ukraine,. The old Government was overthrown, and Putin moved into the Crimea. One of the things the new Government wanted was to end the Russia Lease to Sevastopol. The lease was good for at least another 20 years, but that does not prevent a country from ending such a lease early. Thus Putin moved in to protect his fleet, Putin did not take over the Crimea for any other reason. You threatened the Russia Fleet, expect a reaction Washington did not think Putin would react the way he did and have NOT forgiven him for not giving up his fleet. Washington also does not like the fact Putin gets more oil from the Black Sea.

As to the Eastern Ukraine, the present Government of the Ukraine has refused to make any offers to appease them. 1/3 of your country is rejecting your Government, and the only thing you do is threatened them with FORCE? Lincoln refused to do that in 1861, Lincoln even had Congress pass proposed Constitutional Amendment that clearly protected Slavery to appease the South (The proposed amendment was never approved by any state, even the Southern States). Lincoln's proposal for unity, included leaving the Southern states alone except for supporting the Confederacy and Slavery (and even then, if you were in Union Occupied Southern States, when the Emancipation Proclamation was issued, it did NOT apply to any Slave in areas held by the North, nor technically any Slave who did NOT escape their Masters till after the area they were in Union Hands). Reconstruction became an effort not only to suppress the South's resistance to the changes imposed on them by the Civil War, but also to accommodate them and what they wanted. Thus confiscation of property was limited.

I bring up the US Civil War for you have NO ONE of the side of the Present Government of the Ukraine, even thinking of compromising with the Rebels. People do not revolt because they want to, they revolt because they think they have no other choice (Look at the Declaration of Independence, it list the problems we had with England and out attempts to work out those problems with England, but England refused to even consider our concerns, thus we were force to fight for out Independence).

Again, the revolt of the Eastern Ukraine, reflects a rejection of the coup that installed the present rulers of the Ukraine. What has the Present Government of the Ukraine done to appease the Rebels? Nothing, for the present Government of the Ukraine needs the support of the most radical anti Russian groups in the Ukraine and dare NOT turn them off from the Government (These radicals are just a small part of the ruling coalition, but because they are radicals are willing to fight, thus what they want must be appeased, thus the present government is caught between two groups that it must appeased, but to appease one is to offend the other. Thus this war continues with no effort being made to address the concerns of the Rebels.

Going back to the US Civil War, Maryland had an election in 1865 to abolish slavery. The vote was counted (this was BEFORE we had the Secret Ballot) and when counted the law was defeated, until the votes from the men in the Union Army came in and was so overwhelmingly to abolish slavery that the bill passed. Why? The people most opposed to Slavery were in the Army, while those that supported slavery, in a state that did NOT succeed, had stayed home. The same with the present crisis in the Ukraine, the people who want to punish the East are in the Army and MUST be appeased thus the Ukrainian Government keeps rejecting Putin's proposal for a federation. A federation is the best way to resolve this dispute without further bloodshed, but it appears it is blood what the radicals supporting the present government wants.

Putin is NOT going to stand still and watch people be killed on his border. Putin will do something. Putin has REFUSED to send in troops and has asked the Russian Du ma to withdraw any authorization to do so. Putin appears to have supplied weapons to the Ukraine forces, but many of the weapons used by the former Soviet Union had been produced in that part of the Ukraine in the first place thus how much is local production and how much is being shipped in.

As to the Anti Aircraft missile that took down this plane, it appears to have been fired from Rebel Held area of the Ukraine. Thus no evidence it was fired by any "Russian" crew. No evidence has been produced that this was NOT a unit captured by the Rebels (The regular Ukraine Army has several of these units and given the break down in that army, some may have defected to the rebels). The Missile may have been fired by a Russian crew or may not have been. We have no EVIDENCE either way.

My point, unless you think Russia should just accept US domination, Russia has NOT done anything that can not been taken as defensive. Even the taking of the Ukraine can be seen as defense of the Russian Navy. We have NO evidence of Russian assistance to the Rebels, but I have to agree it is easy to hide such assistance given the Russian ability to detect US Spy Satellites and that the border is like the border between Ohio and Indiana, one farm right against another with farmers crossing that border all of the time.

Putin is NOT a big factor in Syria and has little affect on Iraq. Russia has sent a ship to Venezuela but that was just to show the flag, nothing more. Russian has sold weapons all over the world, but so has the US.

Putin has long said, that he will NOT tolerate any US forces in what he and his fellow Russians, call the "near abroad", those areas that border Russia. Russia considers that the US broke its word when the Soviet Union broke up. At that time President Bush agree to such a non expansion when the Russians pulled its troops from Eastern Europe. The next thing you know Poland and the Baltic Countries are joining NATO. Russia could do nothing about that it clearly put Russia on the Defensive. Remember Russia is one flat country with no real defensive position. Thus it has been invaded by Sweden, Germany, Poland, Lithanian, Persia, and even Turkey. China tried to rule Russia via the Mongols, but did fail. Thus Russia is alwasy worried about who is on its borders AND WHO THEY ARE ALLIED WITH. Latvia and Estonia were used by the Germans in WWII and during the Crusades. Finland, Latvia and Estonia were used by the Swedes in the 1700s. Thus Russia worries about these countries. Findland, Latvia and Estonia are to small to invade Russia itself, but allied with someone who can, a.k.a. the US, are great bases for such an attack.'

The Ukrainian was the base for the Polish and Lithanian Invasion of Russia in the 1600s and was used by the Turks as a base to attack Russia (Before Russia took over the Ukraine in the 1700s). Poland was the base Napoleon used to attack Russia in 1812. Hitler did the same in 1941.

For Comparison, what did the US do when Russian Troops appeared in Cuba? Cuba is a concern to the US for it is the base one needs to take New Orleans. Cuba was the base the British used to attack New Orleans in 1815, and the US pulled a lot of supplies out of Cuba (While NOT technically using it as a base) when Union Forces took New Orleans in 1862. When the Spanish took over New Orleans in 1763, while the turn over had been agreed to by the Spanish and French Government, the Spanish used Cuba as its base to take over New Orleans.

I bring up Cuba, for it is much like the Ukraine, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithanian and Poland to Russia, bases one can use to attack Russia. Any of them being hostile to Russia is no big deal, Russia can live with that for none of them, by themselves (with the possible exception of Poland and the Ukraine) can attack Russia with any hope of success. Thus those areas with foreign troops in them is a direct threat to Russia, and Russia will NEVER permit such a threat to last for any length of time. This explains why Putin took the Crimea, it was telling the Ukraine it had step over the line and Russia would react.

Thus again, Putin was reacting not acting. Putin does NOT want to go to war, but he will also NOT permit anyone to be in a position to put a gun to his head. Nuclear weapons are to destructive to be of any value today, the US only adopted MAD because the US had no hope of every attack Russian and being successful. Thus destruction of Russia became the US Policy.

Today, destruction of Russia would cause more problem then it would solve, thus Nuclear weapons are useless. Europe needs Russia Oil and Natural Gas, thus destruction of Russia would mean the destruction of Europe, even if the Russia used NO nuclear weapons itself. The shortage of Natural Gas and Oil would see the price of both skyrocket and destroy the world economy. Putin knows this thus I suspect he was surprised by the Coup in the Ukraine, for such coup would break up the Ukraine, something even Putin opposes.

My point is Putin is NOT causing the problems in the world today. He is reacting. The problems are being caused by the US for the US wants to remain the dominate world power, while control of energy slips from the Control of the US (The US has controlled world wide energy since WWI, when English Coal started to be replaced by US Oil, in the 1970s US Oil was replaced by Persian Gulf Oil, but the Persian Gulf nations were all allied with the US. One of the reason the US hates Iran is that when the Iranian Revolution throw out the Shah, the US lost control of Iranian Oil. The same with Venezuela, the US hates the present Government for it retains control of its own oil, instead of leaving the US control who gets it).

Thus the dispute with Putin is over the fact he is the largest source of energy NOT allied with or controlled by the US. Iran and Venezuela is also on that list for the same reason. China is NOT on that list for it is a net oil IMPORTER, but with China's growing power China may be able to challenge the US, starting with those oil exporters NOT allied with or controlled by the US. Thus the present fight is over oil and it appears to be the US who is the aggressor. Putin is just reacting and how he is reacting is what the US is objecting to.