China mounts online crackdown amid political crisis

[ellisonz]

7. I agree completely that the PRC today is far less unified...

...than they would like to present. It is divided along class, regional, social, political, religious and ethnic lines.

The current leadership is much more molded by Deng Xiaopeng than Mao who is fast becoming a perfunctory afterthought in terms of making national policy, although lip service is given. I think a fair assessment is that the PRC is no longer a Communist totalitarian state but simply a totalitarian state. It has become a kleptocracy and so the very idea of a good leader holds a lot of power.

Bo Xilai was a big fish and they are worried that like during the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 the death of a high-ranking reformer will spawn general unrest.

I think one way to look at this is the hardliners (no change) vs. conservatives (some change) vs. the moderates (significant change), with the moderates being the most dynamic political force. Bo Xilai who don't want to democratize fully but did want some significant change even if it could be kind of wandering.

I do not expect sudden change but rather a game of musical chairs in which the leading factions one by one are forced out of influence creating a power vacuum. What takes the place of the current order is thus the real question and that Chongqing model was attractive because it seemed like a comfy middle ground.

Someone had it in for Bo Xilai and my money is on Xi Jinping, who is very much a conservative.