Swing States poll: A shift by women puts Obama in lead

[fujiyama]

17. I Agree, this is a stupid methadology

and while somewhat interesting, is pretty much useless overall. It's neither a nationwide poll of the popular vote or a state by state poll, which as we all know is ultimately all that matters in the end.

So here are the states listed as "swing states" they polled:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Fine, fair enough. Those states will all be heavily contested.

But I would argue that NM and MI will hardly be swing states considering the margin last time and the lead Obama holds in those states' polls (though come to think of it I haven't seen a poll of NM). New Hampshire and Nevada have a small fraction of the electoral votes of say OH, PA, or FL. And what about, say MO? Yes, it will be a tough state to pick up but polling so far is very close and McCain won it by just a few thousand votes.

I also would be surprised to see WI switch, considering the last time it went for a republican was in '84. Obama won it by a significant margin in '08 though it has been close in '00 and '04.

Either way, the poll doesn't reveal much.