Shock new poll says Scots set to vote yes to independence

[FarrenH]

92. Well, yes

but lumping them together disguises the fact that they're saying different things.

The EU commission has said "you can't join the EU while you're using the pound", not "you can never join the EU if you use the pound now".

While UK parties are really using the Pound issue as a stick to beat potential Yes voters into submission. But this assumes that Scotland doesn't have equally big sticks. Before and after the vote are two different situations. The list of things that gives Scotland leverage is long, but by way of an example, Sir James Mirrlees has suggested that Scotland could walk away from it's share of the UK's national debt if the English dig their heels in over the pound. Westminster wants Scotland to stay in the union because Scotland has lots that Westminster wants and that means Scotland has far more leverage than No-advocates will admit.

Assuming a Yes vote, after the vote is in and the dust has settled the real horse-trading will begin, but I don't think we can assume too many certainties when the declarations that inform those certainties are themselves attempts to influence the outcome.