Expect the Unexpected: More 9.0 Megaquakes Are Coming, Study Says

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1. 'Megathrust' Earthquakes along Pacific Ring of Fire Predicted by Scientists

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/megathrust-earthquakes-along-pacific-ring-fire-predicted-by-scientists-1465577

'Megathrust' Earthquakes along Pacific Ring of Fire Predicted by Scientists
By Hannah Osborne
September 15, 2014 22:30 BST

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Rong told IBTimes UK that their findings indicate that "given a long enough waiting time", most subduction zones are capable of producing earthquakes of M9 or above: "The reason that we haven't seen such size earthquakes along some of the subduction zones is that our historical earthquake record is too short."

Discussing the risk of the Cascadia subduction zone, she added: "The concern is not based on the current quietness of the Cascadia subduction zone, but on the turbidite study of past earthquakes. The average occurrence time of M9 earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone is about 500 years based on the 10,000-year turbidite study, but the occurrence of such earthquakes did not follow a simple periodic model.

"During the 10,000-year history, the subduction zone had some long quiet times (without a M9 earthquake within ~ 1000 years), and some busy times (five M9 earthquakes within ~1500 years). It is hard to say when the next large earthquake will hit the subduction zone. Nevertheless, we should be prepared for it at any time."

Over the last 100 years, there have been five earthquakes that measured above M9, including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake that devastated parts of Japan.

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