Scottish independence: Voting under way in referendum

[LeftishBrit]

30. Not very! Labour is more so, but, at leadership level, not enormously.

Everything is very up-in-the-air politically.

If the Scottish referendum vote is No, then my prediction is a Labour government with a narrow majority or even a Labour minority government.

If the vote is Yes, then the same could happen, though there is somewhat more risk of the Tories squeaking through, due to (as you say) a significant number of Labour MPs coming from Scotland.

The common myth that the remaining UK would be doomed to permanent Tory rule if Scotland secedes is a bit of an exaggeration. It would make things more difficult for Labour; but in most of our elections the ultimate result would have been the same with or without Scotland's vote - and moreover, we had Labour majority governments at times when Scotland was far less solidly anti-Tory than now.

The next general election result is likely to be close; and may be influenced by all kinds of unknown factors. It's worth remembering a fact rarely noted: in the legendary 1945 Labour super-victory, the Tories got exactly the same percentage of the popular vote (36%) as in their sort-of-victory in 2010. The difference is that the anti-Tory vote was much more divided in 2010. So a lot depends on the popularity/ unpopularity of smaller parties. The LibDem vote has gone down for obvious reasons, and the SNP vote could go either up or down if Scotland says No, and will cease to be a factor in the remaining UK if Scotland says Yes. The right-wing pseudo-populist UKIP is likely to take votes from the Tories, but may also take some from Labour. So it's all a bit up for grabs.

I think Cameron is not likely to be PM much longer. He could well be replaced by Labour; but he could also be replaced by a more personally right-wing Tory.