Ukraine Rebels Voting in Controversial Election

[amandabeech]

3. AFP, AP and BBC are all reporting convoys of unmarked vehicles, including Grads, moving

into eastern Ukraine.

Your summary of the election conditions in eastern Ukraine are very reminiscent of those in Crimea.

It sound like there will be another military offensive, probably moving to enlarge the Donetsk and Luhansk pockets and then to move south from there and east from Russia to grab the port of Mariupol and on to the land bridge to Crimea. My understanding is that the waters of the Sea of Azov and of the Black Sea in general freeze in the winter, thus cutting Crimea off from supplies from Russia.

Putin may be feeling quite angry since the sanctions are starting to hurt and the price of oil is $20 below the level he needs to keep his foreign exchange afloat. He will probably mess around with the gas supply somehow to get not only Ukraine, but also Germany and other western and southern European nations to reject requests from Kiev for aid.

The questions will be how long the Europeans will hold out since the sanctions are hurting some of them, too, and how much we will help.

Of note is the fact that Poland is now strengthening its military presence in its southeastern border with Ukraine. It's difficult to tell whether Poland is expecting Russians or Ukrainian refugees.