Sorry, Ukraine, You Can't Beat Putin

[KoKo]

1. This from the article...how Obama's bullying mispeak in SOTU didn't help matters:

Yet this was unsustainable. Putin had still not blocked Ukraine from turning West. What's more, he looked weak. And to make matters worse on that front, U.S. President Barack Obama, in his State of the Union address, portrayed him as defeated:

Obama in SOTU Speech:

Mr. Putin’s aggression, it was suggested, was a masterful display of strategy and strength. That’s what I heard from some folks. Well, today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters.

As fantasies go, this was right up there with George W. Bush's "mission accomplished" boast after the initial invasion of Iraq. Putin hadn't given up.And if Obama had the first inkling of Putin's character, he would understand that the best way to push him to attack is to boast of beating him.

So Ukraine and its partners lost an opportunity this winter, even if it's impossible to know whether Putin would himself have been willing to make the compromises needed for a settlement. It's also hard to know how far Putin will let his tanks go this time. If he believes there will be no more sanctions, or decides it's worth weathering them, Russian forces could take Mariupol, build a land corridor to Crimea or make the final push to Odessa.