NYT: We Need a Second Party

[stockholmer]

10. "By 2014, they will be finished as a political party" - a lot of miles to tread between now

and 2014. If there is an Obama re-election in 2012 (I would lay odds at 60% to 65% as of this time, provided there is no massive negative turn-down in the economy in th next 8 months, no suprise brokered GOP ticket of import, and no false-flag terror event and/or Iran war disaster) the Dems will facing some really choppy waters starting in 2013.

There are large new tax increases (many that are regressive in impact) that will affect the poor, middle class and small business owners (ie. not just the rich) to a high degree: the new Obama care tax kicks in, the FICA rate will go up, states will be raising sales taxes and the general income tax rates will increase at state and federal levels. The Eurozone will be in tatters, and all the increased US debt and Fed Reserve 'can-kicking' will start to finally catch up with reality.

Also, provided Iran is not attacked prior to the 2012 elections, it will be sometime between 2013 and 2014, as even the most dovish Israeli miltary leaders say Iran is less than 2 years away (if they withdraw from the NPT) from having missiles capable of extended nuclear payload delivery. As of now, Iran is NOT pursuing a nuke, but they can change to pursuit, and combined with the advanced missile systems they are making, Israel will attack or goad the US into doing so.

Combine all this with the history of 2nd term POTUS-holding parties' off-year Congressional election outcomes, and that the US is LOCKED into a horrific 2-party only system, the Repuglets will be far from dead by 2014.

IMHO