The health-care bill drama is killing GOP centrists [View all]

[DonViejo]

By Jennifer Rubin March 23 at 1:15 PM

As of this writing, it does not appear that House leaders have sufficient votes to pass the American Health Care Act. As we watch the day’s events unfold, keep in mind some uncomfortable realities for less than rock-ribbed conservative Republicans:

1. President Trump’s identification with the bill (“Trumpcare”) in most cases is a negative for members still on the fence. For Republicans in districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, Trump’s support is the kiss of political death. For moderate Republicans in districts where Trump won narrowly — voters were willing to give him a chance to prove he was sane and competent — this also is a negative. (Hey, we didn’t vote for that!) With the Koch brothers willing to fund members who vote against the bill, the safer choice for most of these will be to vote no.

2. House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) and the White House made a bad situation worse for the members most at risk. Had the original version of the AHCA been put to a vote (or pulled), conservatives could tell voters that they held their ground, and moderates could say they stood up to Trump. Now, a bill that, for example, makes it possible to offer insurance without pediatric services or maternity care may please hard-line Republicans (who have safe seats anyway) but put moderates in a much worse position. They, rather than Republicans in safe seats, become the decisive votes. They vote yes, and they really get slammed in 2018. They vote no (without the company of far-right Republicans), and the base will come after them. Moderates, in other words, need to avoid a vote or have the cover of conservatives to vote no with them.

3. Ryan must say that he will bring the vote to the floor in order to pressure members to climb on board. Now, if he doesn’t have the votes, would he really put the bill out? It defies logic. That suggests members who do not want to take the vote should keep telling the whip operation they are a no vote. That’s the only way they might escape a controversial vote.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/03/23/the-health-care-bill-drama-is-killing-gop-centrists/?utm_term=.4d30fd8c3541&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1