The Republicans have shackled themselves to repeal and if you look at the numbers coming out of the CBO that's where this bill would get them. They're not doing so good on replace.
If you look at this paper (http://www.kff.org/uninsured/report/the-uninsured-at-the-starting-line-findings-from-the-2013-kaiser-survey-of-low-income-americans-and-the-aca/) by Kaiser it shows that the number of uninsured was roughly 47 millions pre-ACA.
Both the Senate and the House bill do a dandy job of repealing. But don't do a damned thing to replace. Both will lead to uninsured numbers that are almost an exact match of pre-ACA numbers.
The Republicans a few days ago were pointing out that there are still 28 million uninsured and were trying to use that as a justification for repeal of the ACA. Somehow, in their minds, going back to close to 50 million uninsured is an improvement. I guess we'd be going back to the good old days when the uninsured that weren't poor enough just quietly suffered and died.
I think everyone that is paying attention knows that they are trying to accomplish two long sought after goals with this bill: a large tax cut for the highest earners in the country which they're trying to justify by claiming that these tax cuts will magically result in increased economic growth (supply side redux...because it worked out so well that last two times); and gutting Medicaid by imposing per capita caps AND make it a block grant to the states.
They are just quivering with eagerness. But, as Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, have complained--all these interest groups keep pointing out how many millions of American citizens this will screw over.
There are only two ways this is going to going to end and neither one of them is all that good for the treasonous opposition. The first outcome is that the the bill makes it to Trump's desk. He'll sign it even though he has no idea what it will actually do. The problem with this is the timing. They'll have the legislative win they want so badly but it comes before 2018. The attack ads almost write themselves.
The other possible outcome is that the bill dies in the Senate and the Republicans will actually have to do their jobs and work with the Democrats to "fix" the ACA. They'll have the embarrassment of a huge (yuuuuuuge) legislative loss hung around their necks. The right wing will start sharpening their knives. Again, the problem is the timing. It is before 2018 and the attack ads almost write themselves.
I don't see any outcome that is going to be a net win for the Republicans. I keep thinking they can't really be this stupid, but at some point the Republicans became a suicide pact. While they've done an incredible job of gerrymandering and making the field of battle really challenging to the Democrats they've had to move so far to the right to avoid being primaried that the current Republican platform is composed of things that are incredibly unpopular. It is getting harder and harder to make the shit smell like roses.
Don Viejo, as always, love your posts.
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